761 
FXUS63 KOAX 291112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

An upper-level low continues to move slowly across the northwestern 
CONUS with broad southwesterly flow across the nation's mid-section. 
A few embedded weak shortwaves continue to move through this 
southwesterly flow. Cannot completely rule out a few showers/ 
thunderstorms in our eastern counties early this morning with a 
veered low-level jet around 35-40kts in place. Some cloud 
enhancements have been noted overnight but these do continue to 
struggle to become organized likely due to a weak mid-level 
capping inversion. 

Modest southerly low-level flow will continue across the region 
today ahead of surface low pressure over the High Plains. Highs 
are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Combined 
with dewpoints in the 70s, some heat indices along the SD/NE 
border could reach into the 100-105 range. Will continue 
inherited heat advisory for Knox and Cedar counties for this 
afternoon. 

By Tuesday, a vigorous lead short-wave trough will elongate and 
become negatively tilted across the Dakotas and central Plains. 
At the surface, an associated weak cold front is forecast to push 
east across the Dakotas and Nebraska ahead of this feature while 
a surface low slides east across Kansas. Strong to severe 
thunderstorm development is likely Tuesday afternoon along the 
northern Plains surface front and could surge east/southeast into 
eastern Nebraska late Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday 
morning. Portions of northeast Nebraska have been added to a 
Slight Risk for the Day 2 severe weather outlook.

Much of the remainder of the forecast, including the holiday 
weekend looks dry with building heights across the region. Weak
high pressure will be over the area which should provide for a few
days of fairly light winds. Temperatures look near seasonal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MVFR ceilings are expected for much of the morning, then they 
should lift to above 3000 feet or scatter out by late morning or 
early afternoon. Winds will be somewhat gusty from the south/ 
southeast until evening. There is some uncertainty for tonight, 
but confidence was high enough now to include some MVFR ceilings 
developing again tonight. There could also be some fog or haze. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for NEZ011-012.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Miller