765 
FXUS63 KFGF 261126
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
626 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

There has been some patchy fog, but it has not lasted for very
long. Once winds turn northwest, it has been tapering off. Think
any lingering fog will go away quickly this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Low impact weather will continue for the short term. Any showers
early this morning have long since moved out of the FA, with
decreasing clouds ongoing. With the precipitation that fell
Thursday and the light winds in spots early this morning, there 
has been some patchy fog. So far, it has not been very long 
lasting, and should be confined more to the Minnesota portion of 
our FA through sunrise. The heat and humidity will begin to build 
back into the area today and Saturday, with Saturday being a 
little warmer and slightly more humid than today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

There will be several periods of convective activity during the long 
term period, especially Tue and Wed.  Periods of thunderstorms are 
possible Sunday afternoon and night, with decreasing chances on 
Monday morning, then more activity from Monday afternoon through the 
end of the week.

A sharply amplified upper ridge will shift east of the area this 
weekend, and set up a southwest flow upper level pattern early next 
week.  When the upper level flow shifts over eastern ND is the 
biggest question, as activity looks to be over the western Dakotas 
early in the week.  The most certainty is by around Wed afternoon, 
although deterministic models do vary on positions of mean upper low 
and troughing over the Canadian Rockies.  Overall southerly flow 
does shift over the CWA by mid-week.  NAEFS percentiles are 99 to 
99.5 percent from 00Z Tuesday to 00Z Thursday, indicating increased 
confidence for an active period of precipitation Tue and Wed, while 
GEFS M-Climate percentiles target Mon and Tue evenings with PWAT 
values around 1.50 although warm H700 temperatures (12+ C) Mon aftn 
could help inhibit convection through much of the aftn period.

Mon and Tue will be quite warm with most of the area west of the 
forested areas of northwest MN breaking the 90 deg mark.  The 
remainder of the week should be a bit cooler but remain in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

A band of IFR ceilings has descended over portions of northwest
Minnesota, but it looks fairly thin. Therefore only kept a short
mention of it at KTVF and KBJI this morning. No impacts through
the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon