184 FXUS61 KBUF 251918 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 318 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms forming along lake breeze boundaries this afternoon. The best chance for seeing storms will likely be the areas across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region. Dry weather will close out the work week Friday as high pressure dominates overhead. Chances for showers enter back into the forecast Friday night and for Saturday with passages of a warm, then cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... An area of showers and storms are forming in across the Southern Tier and Niagara Frontier off of the lake breeze boundaries this afternoon. As the afternoon progresses, showers and thunderstorms will continue to fill in across Western New York as showers and thunderstorms will be influenced by a passing shortwave trough and associated upper level low. The main threat from any passing showers this afternoon will be thunderstorms as model profiles have limited CAPE of 400 to 700 J/kg. Otherwise, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s with a few low 70s in the lower elevations. Shower activity will diminish this evening close to sunset as lack of daytime heating will shut off the convection. Dry quiescent conditions will follow as high pressure fills back into the eastern Great Lakes. Skies will continue to clear throughout the night tonight, while temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and low 60s. Expect quiet dry weather with plenty of sunshine on Friday as high pressure will dominate overhead. However, there may be a hit or miss shower across the St. Lawrence Valley as the aforementioned upper level low over northern Quebec drifts east and slowly pivots another weak shortwave through the North Country. Highs will rise up into the upper 70s across the region with a few low 80s in the lake plains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface low pressure associated with a shortwave will track well to our north Friday night into Saturday. Severe storms forecast to develop over western Great Lakes Friday afternoon are expected to grow upscale into an MCS while working east into the lower Great Lakes later Friday night. Latest HREF and latest round of individual CAMS support overall trend from the primary models and fits the conceptual model as the MCS would track along north edge of CAPE gradient following the 850-300mb thickness. Wind fields in the low and mid levels support that this convection complex could hold together as it slides across the lower Great Lakes into WNY, though it likely would weaken somewhat at least compared to the strength of the storms upstream in the afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy rain would be the main hazards. SPC continues to have most of the area in a marginal risk on day2 for severe weather due to this MCS potential. Precipitable water values increase to close to 2 inches, so there is also a small risk for heavy rain and flooding with this, but given recent dry conditions some rainfall could prove beneficial. Otherwise, it will be breezy after the storms end Saturday, likely ending Saturday morning over WNY, with southwesterly winds gusting to 35 mph. It looks as if Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor plans. The system consolidates into a broad upper level trough axis which will be across New England on Sunday. A few showers are possible with a weak cold front on Saturday night, but expect Sunday to be mainly dry. Better chance for rain on Sunday would be over North Country and St. Lawrence valley closer to the exiting upper low. Despite the cold frontal passage, more sunshine will result in warmer temperatures at most locations on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will also be notably less humid. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period will be mainly dry and warm, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. The longwave pattern will be rather static, with low pressure cutting off across New England while a strong high pressure ridge builds across the central Great Lakes. This will keep the vast majority of the region dry, with just a small chance for afternoon/evening showers across the North Country. Above average forecast confidence with 00Z model guidance and associated ensembles in fairly good agreement. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An area of showers and storms are forming in across the Southern Tier and Niagara Frontier off of the lake breeze boundaries this afternoon. As the afternoon progresses, showers and thunderstorms will continue to fill in across Western New York being influenced by a passing shortwave trough and associated upper level low. These storms might briefly impact KIAG, KROC or KJHW. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail for a majority of the time at area airport terminals. Tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating with VFR resuming at all terminals. Outlook... Friday...VFR. Friday night...Mainly VFR then a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Saturday...MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Sunday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Monday...VFR. Tuesday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes along with dominating high pressure overhead this afternoon will allow for winds and waves to remain below small craft advisory levels through Friday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...Apffel/JLA LONG TERM...Apffel AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ