897 
FXUS64 KMEG 241029 CCA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
529 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The latest surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary 
across north Mississippi near the Tennessee border. Aloft, GOES 
east Water Vapor Imagery shows a large upper low over Quebec with 
a open shortwave over east Texas. Temperatures across the area 
range from the mid 60s in near the Tennessee River to lower 70s 
across the rest of the area. KNQA radar was picking up a few 
transiting showers across west Tennessee and north Mississippi at 
this hour. 

Short term...Today through Friday...
The aforementioned boundary will remain nearly stationary over 
north Mississippi over the next 72 hours or so. Expect mainly 
diurnal convection near this boundary each day. With weak steering
flow and high PWAT values in place, there is some concern that 
training of showers and thunderstorms may create a variety of 
flooding issues this afternoon. In addition, antecedent 
conditions are depicted quite well. MRMS precipitation data shows 
that a large swath of 1-3 inches of rainfall occurred over north 
Mississippi in the past 24 hours. We also had a couple reports of 
flash flooding and water rescues yesterday. Will add the threat 
for additional flooding to the HWO for at least today. 

North of the boundary, lower humidity and sunny skies can be
expected. Highs will remain slightly below normal with readings 
mainly in the mid to upper 80s through Friday. 

Long term...This weekend through early next week...
Zonal flow aloft will allow multiple low amplitude shortwaves 
to rotate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Saturday looks to
stay mostly dry, although an MCS may clip the northern portions 
of the Mid-South overnight into Sunday. A more pronounced 
shortwave is expected to rotate through the region Sunday
afternoon with pretty good coverage of showers and thunderstorms 
across the area.

By early next week, an Omega Blocking Pattern looks to establish 
itself over the CONUS. The Mid-South will remain on the 
southwestern flank of the east coast low, which will setup northwest
flow over the area. This will likely result in an MCS-type 
pattern each day through the middle of next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak, diffuse cold front is entering the area with a mild, 
humid airmass in place across much of the Mid-South. Dewpoint 
depressions are 1F or less along and south of I-40. Becoming more 
confident in IFR cigs or dense fog along and south of I-40 
including KMEM, KMKL and KTUP. Conds will improve back to VFR 
Wednesday morning with isolated to scattered TSRAs across north MS
as the front stalls across that area. Added a VCTS at KTUP. Wind 
will be light overnight shifting to light north...except KTUP 
where front in the area will result in variable winds. 

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$