820 FXUS65 KPUB 241015 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Weak northwest flow aloft continues across the area today, while low level winds become light sely on the plains in the afternoon. In general, moisture and instability will be less across the region than the past couple days, leading to a corresponding decrease in tsra strength/coverage this afternoon and evening. Expect activity to develop over the higher terrain 18z-20z, then drift southeast across lower elevations late in the day. Last few runs of the HRRR have been rather sparse with tsra development today, with just some very isolated activity in the Pikes Peak region and near the NM border late this afternoon, as model instability is below 400 j/kg over most of the I-25 corridor. As a result, lowered pops considerably across the area today, but didn't eliminate them entirely, as it is tough to completely rule out an isolated storm over and near the mountains this afternoon. Brief heavy rain/small hail/gusty winds and lightning the storm threats today with weak shear, and an isolated dry storm remains possible toward the Continental Divide where low levels remain dry. Max temps at many locations will begin to creep back upward as temps aloft increase slightly, and nudged NBM temp grid up a few degf at normal hot spots across the lower Arkansas Valley. Tonight, convection dies fairly quickly this evening, with models suggesting storms persisting the longest over El Paso/Teller counties. Skies clear overnight, with min temps remaining mild once again. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Thursday-Friday...Latest models are indicating eastern Pacific energy moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest Coast on Wedensday, though continue to indicate differences on strength and location of this system as it translates across the Intermountain West and Rockies Thursday and Friday. Ensemble data indicates the system splitting on Thursday, with a one piece of energy continuing to translate east across the northern Rockies and Thursday and into the northern High Plains through the day Friday, as the second piece of energy digs across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest. This will keep warm and generally weak westerly flow aloft across the area on Thursday, with enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, with the best coverage expected over and near the higher terrain. Model soundings continue to indicate convection will be higher based, save for any storms that can break the cap across the far southeast plains, where better low level moisture will be in place. The passing northern Rockies system sends a cold front across the eastern plains late Thursday night, with developing easterly low level upslope allowing for low level moisture to increase across with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg across the southeast Plains Friday afternoon. This, along with more weak energy within the westerly flow aloft will lead to good chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain Friday afternoon, with storms spreading east across the far southeast plains late Friday afternoon and evening. With that said, the latest SPC Day 3 Outlook has introduced a marginal risk of severe storms across all of eastern Colorado for Friday. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to be above seasonal levels, with highs in upper 80s to upper 90s across the plains and in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler, with the most notable cooling across the southeast plains. Saturday-Sunday...Model differences in the timing and location of the secondary energy digging across the Great Basin and its ejection across the Rockies continue through this period, though it appears there will be enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms, with the best coverage over the higher terrain on Saturday. Temperatures to warm back to above seasonal levels by Sunday. Monday-Tuesday...Warmer, drier and breezy southwesterly flow develops across the region into early next week, as an unseasonably strong system digs across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will lead to more isolated higher based convection and the potential for more critical fire weather days across south central and southeast Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs at all taf sites. Low risk of a tsra at all terminals from late afternoon into early evening, and will carry a vcts mention from 20z-22z until 01-03z, with greatest chance at KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PETERSEN