299 FXUS62 KJAX 240554 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 154 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 19Z Thursday. Southwesterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots overnight will shift to westerly around sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 15Z. Scattered thunderstorms will begin to develop at the regional terminals towards 20Z, except GNV, where confidence was not high enough to include vicinity coverage at this time. Confidence was high enough to include a PROB30 group at SSI after 21Z for gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will develop during the early afternoon hours and will push inland, resulting in surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ towards 19Z and CRG after 20Z, with sustained surface speeds increasing to 10-15 knots outside of thunderstorm activity. Winds at GNV will shift to southwesterly around 20Z, with sustained surface speeds increasing to near 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION [819 PM EDT]... .Short Term.../through Saturday/... The region will be in the base of an upper trough through Wednesday. With the upper low pretty far to the north, the flow through the troughs base will be pretty progressive, allowing a series of surface troughs to move east through the flow. The first of these troughs will continue to pass through this afternoon, aiding in the diurnally initiated convective chances. Another surface trough will move through SE GA Wednesday, with weak ridging at the surface and aloft over NE FL. So, expect best chances for convection Wednesday across SE GA. High pressure builds at the surface and aloft Thursday into Saturday. While can not rule out afternoon and evening convection due to diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions the chances will be less than normal. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. The west southwest flow will limit the push of the east coast sea breeze Wednesday and Thursday, pushing readings above 90 all the way to the beach communities. The flow will be more south to southeast Friday into Saturday, which will allow the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, helping to cap highs east of I95 to around 90. .Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/... The upper ridge will flatten late in the weekend, but surface ridging will remain. The potential for convection will exist Sunday due to diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions, but chances will be lower than normal. Troughing at the surface and aloft will extend south across the region from a low in the northeast early in the week, which will increase chances for mainly afternoon and evening storms. The above normal temperature trend will continue this period. .Marine... High pressure ridge will be southeast of the region through Thursday, with troughing extending into area from the north. High pressure will build over the area Friday through Sunday, with a trough settling over region early next week. Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate risk Wednesday NE FL: Moderate risk Wednesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 71 92 72 94 / 60 50 30 0 20 SSI 92 77 90 76 91 / 60 30 30 10 10 JAX 95 72 96 73 96 / 50 20 20 10 10 SGJ 94 75 92 75 91 / 30 30 20 10 10 GNV 95 72 96 73 97 / 20 0 20 0 20 OCF 95 72 97 74 97 / 10 0 20 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&