339 FXUS63 KDDC 230552 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1252 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 ...Updated Short Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 The active weather pattern continues throughout today for mainly areas in the west. A surface high will move through central Kansas today which should keep the central and eastern zones in light northeast winds through the day while areas in the west will see the winds shift to the southeast. Increasing moisture and instability will combine with a northwest flow shortwave moving in by afternoon to form isolated to scattered thunderstorms pretty much anywhere from a Scott City to Meade line on west. Severe weather risk will once again be on the low side...but with CAPE values in the 1000-1500 range a rogue wind gust to 60 or hail the size of quarters can't be ruled out. Highs should reach into the mid to upper 80s. Tonight as the surface high shifts into Oklahoma the area of instability and moisture over spreads the central and eastern zones as well and with more northwest flow shortwaves and/or outflow boundaries from the afternoon convection...pretty much everybody has at least a slight chance of seeing a passing storm. Overnight lows fall back into the lower to mid 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A typical early summer regime is expected for SW Kansas, as varying degrees of NWly mid level flow will continue through at least Friday. As such, there will be daily rounds of mainly late afternoon/nocturnal scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. It will not rain for three days, and it will not rain everywhere. Rather, pops in the 20-40% coverage range are warranted daily during the preferred convective maximum time each diurnal cycle. Convection will either be directed to SW KS from the mountains (mainly nocturnal), or various small vorticity maxima/shortwaves will interact with the continuous late June moisture/instability supply. Bouyancy will be available each day, and with NWly flow at 500 mb, shear will remain sufficient for some convective organization each day. 12z MEX pops Wednesday through Friday are in near climatology, 25-30% each day, and this trend was retained in the NBM grids. The new 12z ECMWF supports scattered thunderstorms Wednesday PM, and a mesoscale convective complex genesis region across the southern zones late Friday. No obvious organized severe weather episodes are apparent with the models, but this is the time of the year where we have to be on guard for the occasional NWly flow surprise (mesoscale accidents). Temperature forecast is much simpler, very near normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each day. 12z ECMWF shows NWly flow aloft ending over the weekend, as the strong upper high over the SW weakens dramatically, reacting to an unseasonably strong trough digging into the Pacific NW. If ECMWF trends are correct, high pressure would relocate over NE U.S. by Monday, forcing SWly flow aloft and dryline/lee trough maintenance across the plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 In the short term a few isolated storms are moving south from north central Kansas. VCTS will be possible for GCK and DDC through 07Z. There will be a lull in the thunderstorm activity through late Tuesday afternoon and then another round of isolated storms will develop and could affect mainly GCK and LBL with VCTS after 21Z. Otherwise in general VFR conditions and winds below 15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 85 63 90 / 20 10 30 10 GCK 60 86 61 92 / 20 20 30 20 EHA 61 87 62 94 / 40 40 30 20 LBL 61 87 62 94 / 20 30 30 20 HYS 59 85 61 90 / 20 10 20 30 P28 64 87 65 89 / 10 10 10 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Tatro