318 FXUS63 KIND 201948 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 348 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper trough will bring chances of rain starting this afternoon and lasting through midweek. Surface high pressure will allow for a couple of dry days, later in the week followed by another low next weekend which will bring place central Indiana back into the warm sector with chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Chances for isolated showers will start this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system, centered over south-central Canada, starts affecting the region. Gulf moisture and warmth will be pulled into the area within the SW flow. Best chances for PoPs overnight will remain in the the western half of the forecast area, slowly expanding eastward into the early morning hours. Given the high dew points across the area, overnight lows will only get down to around 70 degrees tonight. && .SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper low pressure system tracking eastward across southern Canada, will bring chances for rain throughout the short term period. The front will start out tilted through the vertical, with the surface lagging behind the upper layers. As we get into the beginning of the work week, that front will become more vertically aligned, allowing for some heavier rain. There will be a couple rounds of rain, with best PoPs on Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday. Models show the actual front associated with the low will finally move across the area Tuesday or possibly even just beyond the short term period. Increased cloud coverage and rain will allow the temperatures to be slightly cooler than the past few days, but still warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s, while lows will remain near 70. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 ECMWF suggests a broad upper trough will remain across the area on Tuesday Night into Wednesday...with the best forcing dynamics exiting the area on Tuesday Night. Thus have included continued pops at that time. Surface high pressure is expected t build across the plains on Wednesday through Thursday...placing Indiana in a NW flow of cooler and dry Canadian Air. Subsidence should be in play on Wednesday and Thursday as the surface high approaches and aloft the upper trough slowly departs. On Friday afternoon into Saturday...the ECMWF shows low pressure moving through the Great Lakes...placing Indiana once again within the warm sector favorable for a return of warm and humid air. Thus have included a return of showers and storms at that time. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 201800Z Tafs/... Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Mainly VFR Conditions will be expected this TAF period. Diurnal convection leading to isolated Thunderstorms are expected late today as forecast soundings suggest a favorable setup and HRRR continues to show isolated TSRA development during the peak heating of the day. Coverage and confidence remains too low for a mention. Any TSRA will diminish quickly after sunset. A short wave is expected to approach Indiana overnight. Showers and THunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave overnight and continue into Sunday as the wave passes aloft. HRRR again suggests convective devlopment overnight...continuing into Sunday morning. Time heights and forecast soundings again show a saturated column with lift. Thus have included a VCTS mention through Sunday morning. Any TSRA that does strike a TAF site may produce brief IFR conditions...but confidence is too low for specific timing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH NEAR TERM...KH SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...JP