362 
FXUS64 KAMA 192244
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
544 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 00z TAFs:

Main thing will be the thunderstorms through the beginning of this
cycle. Amarillo will have showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity through the next couple hours, and KDHT/KGUY will follow
suit here shortly with thunderstorm potential going through about
midnight. Erratic wind speeds, MVFR ceilings, and limited 
visibility from heavy rainfall will be the main items of concern. 
Ceilings will improve late this evening, but MVFR condition could 
redevelop between midnight and sunrise with saturated lower 
levels from rainfall. 

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Rather busy this afternoon with severe weather ongoing in Amarillo
as of this writing. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 recently issued
covering the south central and southeast Texas Panhandle until 11
PM this evening. The initial storms are forming along the cold
frontal boundary which has stalled out over the southern Texas
Panhandle. Expect showers and storms to continue developing across
this area through the evening hours, with additional showers and
storms also anticipated to affect the OK and nrn TX Panhandles
from northeast New Mexico this evening and tonight as an upper
level shortwave trof traverses the region. The main severe weather
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, the
strongest, slow moving storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, resulting in localized flooding or flash flooding. The
precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east between
06Z and 12Z Saturday, with lingering showers and a few storms
across the far eastern zones Saturday morning. 

Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop Saturday
afternoon into the evening for mainly the east central and
southeast Texas Panhandle in the region of residual surface
boundaries coupled with sufficient daytime heating and attendant
atmospheric instability. If storms form, they should remain just
below severe levels at this time as parameters are not forecast to
be as favorable compared to today. This will need to be further 
assessed by later shifts.

The upper level pattern is then progged to become northwest late
in the weekend and persist through the middle of next week. This
is a favorable steering flow for bringing showers and storms into
the OK and TX Panhandles mainly during the evening and nighttime
hours from Monday through Thursday night. Slgt chc to chc pops
during this time frame offered by the NBM guidance seem plausible
and were utilized. Kept next Friday dry at this time as more of a
westerly upper level flow commences if the medium range models
verify. 

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99