619 
FXUS64 KMRX 181537 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1137 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite imagery shows that convection is starting to 
blossom across the region, with morning fog and low burning off
and the low level CU field becoming more prevalent. No significant
changes were necessary for the morning update. Mainly fine tuned
PoP grids to account for trends to what is occurring. Trended them
towards a blend of the CONSShort and ARW/NMM guidance through the
early afternoon, which shows PoPs climing to the high-end chance
or even likely levels over the higher terrain of SW Virginia and
along the TN/NC border. By late afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms should spread across more of the area and left the
previous shift's values in place for the late afternoon and
evening time period.

Otherwise, not much change is necessary. Zones have been sent and
all products update.

CD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR to prevail through the period at CHA, MVFR/IFR early this
morning at TYS, MVFR at TRI. Currently the moist PBL is favoring 
saturation and thus patchy fog which should lift shortly revealing
MVFR cigs for a few more hours at TYS, through morning at TRI. 
Otherwise, the upper low continues to shift north with ample 
diurnal heating to favor some convection today. Therefore, 
carried VCTS at CHA/TYS with the lowest confidence being at CHA, 
while prevailing shra with VCTS in the afternoon at TRI, all 
amidst low VFR cigs and lgt/vrb winds. 

CDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  65  85  66  90 /  30  20  30  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  63  83  64  86 /  50  30  50  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  62  84  65  87 /  50  30  40  20  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  60  79  59  82 /  70  50  80  30  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$