163 FXUS63 KDTX 161753 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 153 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 .AVIATION... Cumulus field has cropped up as expected this afternoon as VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. The FEW-SCT coverage will be based in the 5-6 kft range as the mixed-layer deepens a bit through the diurnal cycle. CLR conditions should persist farther north (i.e. MBS) where lake moisture advection will be less favorable. The lake breeze boundary near DET/DTW is still east of the terminals, but should soon make inroads veering winds a bit more southeasterly this afternoon. Elsewhere, flow more broadly weakens and becomes southeasterly overnight then trends near calm. Surface conditions should remain too dry for any fog development overnight. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 DISCUSSION... The Great Lakes are positioned beneath broad upper level ridging that will remain dominant through the remainder of this week before the western CONUS trough finally releases and slowly progresses eastward. With a cutoff low spinning over the Carolinas, broad subsidence persists over our region with abundant sunshine in store today and each day through at least Friday. Some diurnal cumulus should make an appearance again this afternoon across the southern forecast area as better moisture moves in from the southeast, but precipitation will remain on hold as high pressure maintains its grip on the region. A healthy lake breeze will develop and usher these clouds farther inland during the late afternoon. Highs today reach into the lower 80s as thicknesses continue to trend upward, while dew points in the 50s will keep humidity to a comfortable level. Skies remain clear tonight and lows fall to the mid to upper 50s /upper 60s for Metro Detroit/. The blocked upper air pattern remains largely intact through the rest of the week with the cutoff Carolina low slowly drifting back northwest to the Appalachians and beginning to fill in by the weekend. With high pressure remaining over the Great Lakes and a lack of substantial temperature/moisture advection, the only change to the sensible weather will be a warming trend that results from daily air mass modification in the mid-late June sun. This process culminates in high temperatures reaching the lower 90s for Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge slides far enough east to allow for the central CONUS thermal ridge to move in and boost temps. Humidity will also be on the increase during the weekend, though precip still looks to hold off until Saturday night or Sunday at the earliest as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. The front moves through Sunday, followed by another cold front by late Monday. These will bring temperatures back to near-normal values for early next week /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as well as several chances for showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday. MARINE... High pressure will persist over the northern Great Lakes through Friday bringing favorable marine conditions. Light winds will fluctuate between easterly and southerly through Friday. Wind gusts will remain well below 20 knots over much of the lake. The next chance of weather looks to come for the weekend as a cold front approaches Saturday and exits east Sunday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....KK DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......DRC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.