780 FXUS64 KBRO 150857 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 357 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A surge of higher moisture content(PWATs 1.8-2.0 inches) will continue to advect into the deep south Texas from the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of low to mid- level flow. Brownsville radar currently indicates some activity across the lower Texas Gulf waters. The combination of deeper moisture with the surface convergence along the sea breeze should support a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. Can not rule out a few slow moving storms may produce brief heavy rainfall due to the light wind flow. Convection is expected to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating but enough lingering moisture will support the mention of isolated pops tonight. Will lean towards the wetter GFS/MET guidance for pops through the period instead of the drier NBM/ECMWF. Abundant cloudiness and ample moisture will keep temperatures slightly below normal today and Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 70s. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Mid level flow remains persistent through the work week with a modest ridge extending from SW Mexico northeast across Texas. An elongated trough extends from the Mid-Atlantic States through the SW Gulf. As the weekend commences the ridge retrogrades and weak 500mb low pressure settles over Texas. Model trends continue to show individual consistency with the ECMWF trending with low pops Wednesday through Friday and then showing a slight uptick next weekend. GFS on the other hand looks way overboard on the pop train through Friday then trends much lower for the weekend. The NBM continues to show very low pops and pretty much trends below all guidance for the entire long term. Confidence is well below average for pops and the latest forecast trends in line with the previous forecast which is line with the NBM until their is more clear cut solution to follow. Temperatures on the other hand show good consistency among the models and The Blend. Light to moderate southeast flow off the Gulf will continue to push temperatures and humidity level upwards near to above seasonal normals as we approach the Summer Solstice. && .MARINE:Now through Tuesday: Broad surface high pressure across the Gulf will support a weak pressure along the lower Texas coast. This pattern will support low to moderate onshore flow and low to moderate seas. Locally stronger winds and higher seas will be possible in and around periods of thunderstorms. Tuesday night through Friday...Broad surface ridge to remain over the Northern Gulf with weaker low pressure across the Southern Gulf. A light to moderate southeast flow can be expected with a slight to modest sea. Isolated daily and evening showers or a rouge thunderstorm can be expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 88 77 / 50 30 40 10 BROWNSVILLE 91 76 90 77 / 50 30 50 10 HARLINGEN 91 74 90 75 / 50 30 50 10 MCALLEN 91 75 90 76 / 40 20 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 73 94 74 / 40 20 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 80 84 80 / 50 30 40 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 63...Short term/Aviation 59...Long term/Upper air