648 
FXUS64 KLUB 150753
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Not much has changed in the last 24 hours. Today's weather will look 
a lot a like yesterday's. Upper level high pressure should suppress 
convection this afternoon and evening. Progged thicknesses suggest 
high temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday with the 
possible exception of the southeastern corner of the forecast area 
where thicknesses nudge just a bit higher. Progged 850 mb 
temperatures support the thickness trend with forecast highs very 
close to seasonal average.

.LONG TERM...
Chances of precipitation have returned to the forecast after a long 
hiatus. On Wednesday, we will see a weakness in the heights develop 
overhead as the upper ridge begins to break down. Mid level moisture 
will be trapped within the weakness overhead into eastern New 
Mexico. A surface trough in eastern New Mexico will also promote the 
development of afternoon thunderstorms mostly for areas on the 
caprock. Precipitation chances for Thursday and Friday are a little 
more uncertain. Convective development will depend on the strength 
of an upper level ridge and whether we will have building heights or 
neutral height changes aloft. However, mid level moisture still 
looks to be trapped overhead. For the weekend, confidence is low in 
convection. We may see possible northwest flow storms but will 
depend on the strength of an upper level low dropping across the 
Midwest and a building ridge across the southwestern CONUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will not run with an RFW or RFD today. Models suggest afternoon 
temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday. Backed winds to 
southeast this morning will transport marginally better low level 
moisture into the area with observed relative humidity ultimately 
determined by how much mixing occurs this afternoon. Forecast is 
higher with dew points than the last few days and when combined with 
forecast temperatures the expected relative humidity ends up mainly 
closer to 20 percent west of the escarpment. In addition, winds 
should be a bit lighter today as the pressure gradient relaxes a 
bit. This combination supports RFTI's of zero areawide. Big caveat: 
it won't take much in the way of lower dew points and/or higher wind 
speeds than currently expected to push into elevated criteria, 
especially for the far southwestern Panhandle where ERC values are 
near 95 percent. Day shift will monitor trends closely and adjust 
accordingly. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/01