935 FXUS62 KTAE 150538 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Tuesday] VFR conds will prevail thru the period. Light and variable winds are expected overnight then become north/northeasterly at generally less than 10 kts. It is possible that terminals north of I-10 (most likely ABY) see -SHRA and/or -TSRA Mon afternoon but chances are too low to mention in TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION [810 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]... A dry airmass for June standards will remain in place through tonight. The 12z KTAE sounding was quite dry with a precipitable water values of only 0.80 inches. There is only a slight chance of a brief shower or storm over the far southeast big bend for the remainder of the afternoon where moisture is slightly higher. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Heading into Monday, an upper low will dive southward into the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Slightly deeper moisture wrapping around this feature will allow for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the area on Monday, but most areas will remain dry again. Afternoon highs will generally range from the mid 80s to low 90s. .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow night Through Tuesday]... An upper level trough currently over the Ohio Valley is expected move over the Mid-Atlantic region, and become dislodged from the main upper level flow pattern causing it to stall across this region. This quasi-stationary upper level low will bring continued northwest flow and subsequently very dry air to our region in the mid-levels. This dry air will make it difficult for any afternoon convection to develop on Tuesday even though surface moisture will be plentiful. The greatest chance will be across our northern central Georgia zones as upper level support from the aforementioned trough may be close enough in proximity to initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Similarly to the short term period the same dislodged/quasi- stationary upper level low is expected to be in place across the southern Appalachians Through the remainder of the week. During this time, it is expected to weaken by the Wednesday/Thursday time frame; however, due to its proximity to the region, the mid-levels will have continued advection of dry air from the northwest, which will keep our chances for precipitation low through the week for our region. From the previous forecast, rain chances have now decreased even more with the highest chances expected on Tuesday/Tuesday night at around 10-20%. Beyond Tuesday night and through the rest of the work week and the weekend, POPs drop to less than 10% across the region. With the continued advection of dry air through the mid to low levels, high temperatures are expected to increase through the week from the low 90s to the mid 90s as greater mixing is allowed to occur. Lows will also start to increase from the upper 60s to the low 70s across our region through the end of the period. .MARINE... Northerly to northeast winds less than 15 knots are expected to persist through the remainder of the weekend and next week as a weak pressure gradient sets up across our region. In conjunction with the weak winds, seas will generally be calm at around 1-2 feet. .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Besides the Econfina river Perry just in minor flood stage, no other rivers are flooding or are expected to flood over the next week. A moderately dry week for June standards is about to begin with little to no POPs expected through the work week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 67 86 64 87 / 10 10 10 0 10 Panama City 92 71 88 69 88 / 0 10 20 10 10 Dothan 89 66 84 63 86 / 10 10 20 0 10 Albany 87 65 82 63 84 / 20 10 10 0 10 Valdosta 86 65 82 63 83 / 10 10 10 0 10 Cross City 90 67 87 65 88 / 0 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 89 72 85 70 85 / 0 10 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...IG MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Bunker