414 FXUS64 KSHV 150531 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .AVIATION... For the 15/06z TAFs...Latest radar imagery continues to show some scattered convection moving across portions of central Louisiana this evening, generally trending downward. Meanwhile, latest satellite imagery shows associated cloud cover across central Louisiana with some additional clouds moving across northwest Louisiana. VFR conditions will prevail for most TAF sites through the entire period. The exception will come for KLFK where some patchy fog cannot be ruled out around sunrise. Easterly to northeasterly surface winds will continue through the day Monday with some increased cumulus clouds across the area. /33/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ UPDATE... Scattered convection that was ongoing across North Central Louisiana has almost entirely dissipated. A few isolated storms continue just south of the CWA, and these could brush portions of our southern-most parishes just east of Toledo Bend Reservoir prior to 04z. However, the overall coverage and chances for rain are far too low to warrant inserting mentionable PoPs. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be largely on track this evening. No updates are anticipated. CN PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/ Nice cumulus field along and south of I-20, and few cu to the north as well. Radar is showing some good return from echos to our East. Nothing real exciting in our area just yet, but a cluster of showers is cross the MS River now near Friday and St Joseph. A few isolated showers are also seen near Winnsboro, all of this activity is moving Westward at 10 mph. Some of this will get into cenLA and maybe toward Toledo Bend before nightfall. Otherwise, another nice late Spring day with air temps close to average in the upper 80s and mostly low 90s. Heat index is about the same with relative humidity at 40 percent last hour. The models HRRR is best with depiction of spotty isolated coverage expected for several more hours. We are still locked into the same pattern with the upper low core dropping into the East coast long wave and upper level ridging from Texas into the middle MS River valley. Expect light and variable to calm winds overnight with highest dew points in the area likely to see patchy fog perhaps in the coming nights with lows in the upper 60s still for an average. Highs tomorrow in the lower 90s once again with a few mid 90s for good measure. /24/ LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday Night/ Upper ridge axis to remain amplified from the Rio Grande Valley nwd into the Great Lakes Region, as an upper low churns over the sern CONUS and another trof axis lingers over the nrn Rockies. This pattern looks to hold on through the upcoming work week, with weak high pressure at the sfc continuing to hold. Temps likely to continue to gradually moderate upwards, as abundant sunshine and lack of rainfall will contribute to drying soils/vegetation. Upper trof axis over the nwrn CONUS may finally erode the ridge axis enough towards the end of the week and into next weekend that we begin to see some at least isold aftn convection. As the upper trof finally is able to push ewd into the Plains, we may see some slightly better rain chances with an associated cold front late Saturday. /12/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 69 94 70 / 10 0 10 0 MLU 93 69 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 93 68 93 66 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 91 69 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 93 67 90 64 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 92 70 93 70 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 93 69 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 93 70 95 70 / 10 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/13/33