007 FXUS63 KDMX 141737 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Saturday/ Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 .Overview...Today will be another pleasant June day with low humidity, seasonable temperatures, and breezy winds. A few showers or storms are possible as a warm front lifts across the state tonight followed by warmer and dry conditions through midweek. A front will move into and perhaps stall over the state later this week bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. .Details...The early morning satellite imagery from GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows a similar scene to yesterday morning. Scattered showers with a few flashes of lightning per GOES- East data are over far east central Iowa into northern Illinois early this morning. Looking at the GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery shows a compact upper level low over southern Lake Michigan, which has been the forcing for these showers. This upper level low/shortwave trough is moving down the east side of a mid-level ridge that is centered up over the Red River Valley of the North toward Lake Winnipeg. At the surface, high pressure will be moving eastward over southeastern Canada, which will once again foster breezy southeasterly winds and seasonable conditions with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds should gust over 30 mph over portions of northern Iowa later today, mainly this afternoon. As the upper low/shortwave trough drops southeastward into the central Appalachians and eventually closes off and the surface high moves farther away from the region, this will allow a warm front to lift eastward across the state tonight. Low level thermal lift may be able to aid in a few to scattered showers or thunderstorms, though moisture depth continues to look marginal per NAM/GFS soundings. Many of the HREF members' reflectivities show activity crossing parts of northern Iowa tonight and have that indicated in the current forecast with low PoPs. As this warm front lifts past Iowa and the mid-level ridge becomes centered over the area on Monday, temperatures will respond and be back well into the 80s and then upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. The mid-level ridge will keep any troughs moving into central Canada through mid-week. As a long wave trough moves ashore the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, it will begin to slowly flatten the ridge toward the middle part of the week. A surface cold front is still advertised for around Thursday to bring increasing chances for showers and storms to the state. Last night's models pushed the front through much of Iowa, but stalled it near or south of the Iowa- Missouri border. Models generally agree tonight that this will now be hung up and more centered over Iowa. Will continue with the trend from the dayshift of higher PoPs later Thursday into early Friday, which agrees with National Blend of Models input. Won't get stuck too much on day 5 details, but could be strong storms with sufficient instability and what looks like at this time as marginal shear. 13th and 14th/00z CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance does highlight much of Iowa with a 15% risk on Thursday. On the heavy rainfall side, precipitable water values will be back up over 1.5 inches across much of the state Thursday evening with warm cloud depths pushing 4000m and 850-300mb flow on the light side. The quasi-stationary boundary will slowly push through the state, which will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast. While the forecast may look wet for late this week into next weekend, all day/night rain/storms is not expected. Once the trough or closed low moves east of the area later next weekend, more seasonable and drier air will move into the region end the precipitation chances. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/ Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals thru the period. So too will breezy southeast winds, with gusts occasionally reaching upwards of 30 knots this afternoon, especially at KFOD, KMCW, and KALO. A few showers are expected to develop west and north of the area this evening and tonight. Do not anticipate this activity to impact airfields, with the exception of lower VFR cloud bases. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004-005-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Hahn