822 FXUS65 KREV 122048 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 148 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will bring strong gusty winds and increased fire danger through this evening along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may continue late tonight in parts of west central Nevada. Temperatures will cool to well below average on Saturday and Saturday night, followed by a quick warmup starting Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... A deep cumulus field with is developing across western Nevada and northeast California...and we are seeing a few lightning strikes in northwest Nevada...as the trough associated with an upper low southwest of the Bay Area moves into the region. Low level moisture is somewhat sparse across west central where humidity values are below 15%. Gusty winds ahead of the trough and these lower humidity levels are combining to create critical fire weather conditions. The gusty winds extend farther west...but humidity values are rising in the Sierra and far western Nevada. More on the fire weather situation can be found in the Fire Weather discussion below. The increase in humidity and increasing dynamics with the trough should aid shower and thunderstorm development this evening. The trough should move through fast enough that total precipitation should be rather limited by the time the showers end late Saturday night. Areas north of I-80 along with areas east of Highway 95 and north of Highway 50 will receive the most precipitation. Snow levels fall to near 6500-7000 by Saturday morning so some light snow is possible at the highest elevations of the Sierra...but no more than an inch or two. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty outflow winds due to their forward speed. Any hail would be rather small this evening. Storms are possible into early Saturday morning over eastern Pershing and Churchill counties as the best forcing shifts to that area overnight. Colder air moves in tonight and Saturday at the surface. Highs Saturday should be 12-18 degrees cooler than today while lows tonight dip into the lower to mid 40s for the lower valleys. Lows Sunday morning could be a little colder with some colder western Nevada valleys reaching the high 30s while the Sierra valleys drop to near freezing. With the upper low moving out of the area Sunday we should see a return to dry weather. Temperatures will rebound to near normal by Monday. Model solutions are in decent agreement that we will shift to a pattern that features a broad low-amplitude trough to our north and westerly winds over our region. This would support near normal temperatures and occasional breezy winds Monday through Wednesday. Some solutions now bring a baggy trough farther south by Thursday with relative light flow in the lower to middle portions of the atmosphere. This cooling aloft...light winds in the low-mid levels...and increased daytime heating could lead to the development of thunderstorms south of Highway 50 and close to the Sierra both Thursday and Friday. At this point we are not going to introduce thunderstorms...but we will show an increase in clouds and POPs up to about 12% for Thursday and Friday. XX && .AVIATION... Winds have increased as forecast from the S-SW. Peak gusts will be around 30kts for most areas, although some stronger wind gusts to 40s kts are possible from 23-03Z for KMMH, KNFL, and KLOL. Some local LLWS tonight, particularly for KTVL from 03-12Z tonight when winds are strongest aloft on the back side of the cold front. Lighter winds tomorrow from the west with peak gusts 20-25 kts. We still expect some showers to move through overnight, but look to remain VFR for the most part. Some MVFR CIGS and mtn obscuration are possible in the Sierra from 00-06Z. Some showers in western NV too, mainly near the Highway 95 corridor. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible with some small hail. Saturday will see a few showers, but confined more to the Oregon border. For Sunday and Monday, VFR with light winds. X && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warnings continue for the south and east portion of the forecast area from southern Mono County into Pershing County. Winds have been a little slower to materialize, and may have to do with the mid and high clouds across the area limiting mixing for the moment. Even so, areas within the warning are flirting with or exceeding criteria. Winds will peak late this afternoon and the warning still looks good. Winds diminish overnight tonight. They will be typically breezy tomorrow, but it will also be a lot cooler with higher RH. Light winds Sunday and Monday with a warming trend. The other concern will be thunderstorms tonight, but they look to be isolated and wet at this time. Most thunderstorms will occur near and east of a Cedarville to Fallon line tonight. Wetting rains are also most likely to occur here as well with up to a half inch possible. X && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ421-423-429. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-004. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Washoe Lake in NVZ003. CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ274. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ073. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno