699 
FXUS64 KLUB 120742
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
242 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Temperatures will remain at or just above seasonal averages again 
today. The upper level ridge over the area will amplify today 
shifting mid level moisture even farther to the west and north. This 
will keep any monsoon thunderstorm activity well outside of the 
region. Thickness values will be just a touch lower today but is not 
likely to make a significant difference on temperatures. Weak 
surface lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado will bring breezy 
southerly winds again this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
Persistent upper level ridge over the south-central CONUS is not
progged to go anywhere through the forecast period. Its
orientation and strength suggest a dry and seasonably hot forecast
will continue through at least the early part of next week. Some
indications that some mid level moisture could get trapped in the
ridge after a short wave trough moves across the northern Rockies
early next week. However, that signal is quite weak at this point
and will keep the forecast a dry one. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon temperatures will be near or just above seasonal averages 
this afternoon but dry air will lead to relative humidity values at 
or below 15 percent area wide. Southerly winds will be around 15 mph 
at the 20 foot level giving RFTI values of 1-2 for areas on the 
caprock. However, ERC values are above the 70th percentile area wide 
and greater than the 90th percentile near the Texas/New Mexico state 
line. Therefore, an RFD will be issued for the South Plains and 
extreme south and south-central Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

01/07