071 FXUS61 KCLE 120142 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 942 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues building northeastward up the Ohio Valley and into our region through tonight. On Friday, a cold front sweeps southeastward through our region as low pressure moves northeastward and away from Labrador. Canadian high pressure follows the front Friday night through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Minor changes made to PoP and cloud cover forecast. Otherwise, forecast looks to be on track. Original Discussion... Fair weather likely persists through tonight as surface high pressure continues to nose northeastward up the OH Valley and into our CWA. Aloft, we remain under a longwave trough. Low temperatures should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's, with the warmest readings along and near the Lake Erie shore given the lake's average surface water temperature is near 65F. On Friday, the longwave trough persists as an embedded shortwave trough approaches our region from Lake Superior and vicinity. At the surface, a cold front should sweep southeastward through our area between roughly daybreak and noon. A few light rain showers may occur along and behind the front, especially inland from Lake Erie. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 60's to upper 70's. The coolest highs will be found along and near the Lake Erie shore as northwesterly to northerly post- frontal winds blow off the lake. Isolated showers remain possible Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity. Low temperatures should dip into the mid 40's to mid 50's. The coolest lows are expected in interior northwest PA, while the mildest lows are forecast along and near the Lake Erie shore. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term period begins Saturday as a shortwave trough and associated cold front exits south of the area Saturday morning, with some light residual shower activity possible across Marion/Morrow/Knox counties. A deep trough and dry air will spread south across the lower Great Lakes, bringing seasonably cooler temperatures across the region through the weekend. Highs will be pleasant in the mid to upper 60s on Saturday with some lower 70s on Sunday accompanied by mostly sunny skies. A vort max will eject from the trough across the Ohio Valley and is expected to form into a closed-low and move into Southeast CONUS; a scenario proposed by the ECMWF yesterday, and now echoed by the GFS and CMC models. ECMWF now has this closed low further south than previously, which would suggest an even higher probability of a drier forecast for early next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As mentioned above, latest ECMWF guidance brings the closed-low further south in the vicinity of South Carolina/Georgia. As this occurs, ridging will increase across central CONUS, bringing warmer and more summer-like weather across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, though dry conditions are expected to remain, highlighted by the CPC 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook. Temperatures will remain pleasant on Monday with highs in the mid 70s. Temperatures will increase through the rest of the week, with upper 80s and lower 90s certainly a possibility by Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR expected next 24-hours. A surface high pressure ridge noses into our area from the southwest for the rest of today. Westerly and breezy surface winds will ease and become light and southwesterly after about 23Z/Thurs. A surface trough overspreads our region from the northwest Friday morning and early afternoon. In addition, a cold front should sweep southeast between about 12Z and 17Z/Fri, causing southwesterly surface winds to shift to northwesterly and increase to around 10 knots. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible along and behind this front. Any low-level ceilings along and near the front should be in the VFR range. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Will drop the beach hazards and small craft for the western basin of Lake Erie at the regularly scheduled 4 PM update as winds have begun to diminish below 20 knots. Will continue the beach hazards and small craft for the eastern basin of Lake Erie through 8 PM this evening. A cold front will cross the lake Friday night, shifting winds towards the north and introducing the threat for small craft Friday night. Onshore winds will shift slightly more northeasterly on Saturday, continuing the small craft threat and possible introducing a beach hazard threat during the day. Onshore flow and northeasterly winds, 15 to 20 knots, appears to continue through the weekend into early next week, with the possibility of lakeshore flooding across the western basin, though confidence remains low. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Kahn