350 FXUS63 KAPX 102001 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .NEAR TERM...(Through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 ...Showers and storms tonight then quieting down... High impact weather potential: Some stronger storms with heavy rain possible thru this evening. Lakeshore flooding/beach hazards concerns, mainly on Lake MI. 983mb low pressure is lifting ne away from Superior. A cold front trails off into central upper MI and eastern WI, to a weak wave in sw WI. THe cold front continues s to sse into far western IN. Severe t-storms crossed far se portions of northern lower MI, near Saginaw Bay. The stratiform rain portion of this MCS extends into northern lower MI, with some embedded thunder. An ejecting shortwave is lifting across northern IL, with showers and some thunder to its west and north. This will provide a shot of dynamics and colder temps aloft this evening as it opens up and ejects. Good agreement amongst CAMs that showers/t-storms presently in southern WI will develop ne-ward into northern MI, associated with the incoming shortwave. A small plume of MlCape values of 500-1000j/kg is present over eastern WI, and this will shift ne with the wave. There is a little potential for briefly training convection (as is seen now in se WI) and decent rainfall rates. But the available instability, not helped by onset of diurnal cooling and eventual passage of the cold front, appears insufficient for an organized svr threat. This is despite 0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. Would certainly not preclude an isolated strong/isolated svr cell, as is all too prevalent with our severe 'events' up here. No more than that. Some drying takes place from s to n overnight, and pops will dwindle as well, hanging on longest north of M-72. A secondary, kicker shortwave will contribute to lingering precip in northern sections. But by Thu morning, activity will be lingering only in eastern upper MI. A good chunk of tomorrow will be quiet, with cooler/drier air in place. Late in the day, another shortwave and secondary cold front will move into the region from the nw. This will intercept a brief increase in return flow into the frontal surface. Expect some showers to break out in northern lower MI, mainly after mid- afternoon. Pops will be highest along the M-72 corridor, and do not have any thunder mentioned. Beach hazards will linger and/or return on Lake MI beaches thru the day Thu. Marginal lakeshore flooding could also emerge very late tonight into Thu, again on Lake MI. Onshore wind speeds are marginal, though the duration of the event is longer which will help. Min temps tonight much cooler, upper 40s to mid 50s. Max temps Thu also cooler, near 60f to the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 High impact weather potential: Possible frost Friday night? Large scale troughing and associated moisture will move through the Great Lakes region ahead of a ridge of high pressure building into the forecast area. This upper level trough will produce some chances for light rain and mostly cloudy skies through Friday afternoon. Aforementioned high pressure then builds in from western Ontario...clearing skies and diminishing any lingering showers that may be around. This high pressure will provide some cooler than normal temperatures with a northerly wind flow and will also produce mostly clear skies. If winds happen to decouple Friday night, there could be some frost...although winds are forecast to stay between 6- 12 mph at this time, which would hinder any frost development. Will have to keep an eye on the winds in the next several model runs to see if the possibility becomes greater or not. Winds will be northwesterly through Friday and begin to veer to more north to north-northeast Friday night into Saturday as the aforementioned high pressure drops a bit more southeast towards the Great Lakes region. High temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s Friday and warm a bit Saturday...reaching into the low to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s Friday morning and in the upper 30s to low 40s Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 High impact weather potential: Possible frost Saturday night? Rather benign weather pattern with only slight chance pops during midweek of the next work week. High pressure will dominate the weather throughout the upcoming weekend and into the beginning of the next work week...producing mostly clear skies and fairly light winds. With the current forecast of mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s...frost may be a problem Saturday night. Daytime temperatures should be in the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday and moderate a bit each day until temperatures reach into the low to mid 80s once again on Tuesday and last through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Strong thunderstorms expected near APN this afternoon. Cluster of showers/storms lifting north out of southern lower MI. Stronger activity will be in ne lower lower, and the APN area will at least be clipped by a strong if not severe TSRA. TVC/MBL/PLN will be the fringes of this activity, with a touch of thunder/ lightning but relatively light rain. Showers/storms will redevelop late this afternoon and this evening, and be relatively widespread, though strength of this activity is still somewhat uncertain. It is most likely that this activity will be less intense than the present storms in central lower MI. Cigs will eventually lower to MVFR and perhaps IFR this evening and early overnight. Improving conditions late tonight and Thu morning. Sw winds will be a little lighter this afternoon than earlier, but somewhat gusty westerly winds return tonight into Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Low pressure moving ne away from Superior will send a cold front across northern MI this evening. Winds will veer westerly and strengthen tonight into Thursday, and small craft advisories and/or gale warnings will continue on all of our waters into Thursday. Breezy nw winds will be seen Thu night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-020-024-025-031-088-095-096-098-099. LH...GALE WARNING until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ346>349. LM...GALE WARNING until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. GALE WARNING until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321. && $$ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JZ