197 FXUS63 KOAX 090928 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 428 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... After a period of toasty but otherwise quiet weather, temps are cooling off a bit going forward just as work heats up on the forecast desk with a busy short-term forecast. Quiet weather will resume by Thursday. .RAIN... Severe thunderstorm warnings have been replaced by flood warnings, watches and advisories across north central Nebraska. These storms just missed the OAX CWA to the west. They'll make a slow progression east through the day and begin to produce headlines here by this afternoon. Moderate rain is expected this morning on the northwestern edge of the forecast area producing totals of 0.5" or so by noon. Still expecting heaviest rainfall to fall along and south of I-80 in an area cornered by Seward south to Fairbury then east to Nebraska City and north to Plattsmouth. This area included Lancaster County and the state capitol. That rain will fall later this afternoon. The focus will be shifted south as the lee side trough developing in eastern Colorado now organizes and sweeps east just south of the Kansas state line through the day today. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in affect for the southwestern CWA as a result. Have cut back QPF a bit as guidance suggests. Have noted the HREF continues to paint 3" in the WATCH area while our numbers are generally producing 1-2" there. It's worth noting that the HREF's members are time lagged a bit. A separate but just as heavy area of rain will fall across parts of Iowa as the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal plods directly north. Generally expect the threat for heavy rain to remain across the central part of the state. Better chances for western Iowa wait until this evening, when the Kansas system sweeps northeast. .SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... Continue to forecast a chance of severe weather this afternoon as the Kansas low arcs a warm front across southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. There's plenty of instability but lapse rates and shear are marginal at best. LCL heights near 1km also leave the tornado threat wanting. Expect hail and damaging winds to be the primary threat but can't rule out a couple of tornadoes. The severe threat quickly diminishes after sunset. .STRONG WINDS... Powerful NNW winds look to stand out on what's already been a windy June. Guidance has been consistently producing gusts of 50-70kts at times. Expect that 70kt winds are overdone by the HRRR. I am confident enough in 60 mph gusts to issue a HIGH WIND WARNING from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning with the strongest winds working from west to east through the period. Trees will be damaged in this climatologically unusual event. A WIND ADVISORY trims the WARNING to the north and east.. including all CWA's Iowa counties. .WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND... Winds will remain gusty on Wednesday as showers depart to the east. High temperatures will actually fall below seasonal norms on Wednesday behind the departing system. Expect breezy winds and highs in the mid-70s to find at least some in the audience receptive. Highs will quickly rebound with low 80s forecast by Thursday and 90s possible as we begin another work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A frontal system moving in from the west will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to eastern Nebraska TAF sites Tuesday. Storm will likely reach KOFK by 14Z, with a later arrival between 18Z and 00Z at KLNK and KOMA. Strong storms are possible in the afternoon. Southeast to east winds will turn northerly as front passes, around 14Z at KOFK and 21Z to 23z at KLNK and KOMA. Strong winds will follow the front, increasing into the 20 to 40kt range through the afternoon. Some gusts over 50kt are possible at KOFK after 21Z, and at KLNK after 00z. MVFR cigs are also expected to overspread eastern Nebraska with the stronger north winds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ015-091-093. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ034-045-052-053-067-068-089-090-092. Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for NEZ065>068-078-088>090-092. High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-016>018. IA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Dergan