498 FXUS64 KMEG 090457 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1157 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 .UPDATE... Aviation Discussion Below && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ UPDATE... Midevening GOES IR/WV imagery showed Tropical Depression Cristobal roughly centered over central AR. Dry air off the southern plains had become wrapped into the lower/midlevels of the cyclone, resulting in limited rainfall coverage over the delta this evening, just east of the remnant surface low. Most of the heavy rainfall had occurred in north/south oriented outer bands extending from central MS into north central and northeast MS. Tornado threat has been limited by relatively weak (for a tropical cyclone) directional shear. In addition, extensive cloud shield had limited daytime destabilization over northeast MS, well away from Cristobal's center. Outside of the heavier showers, surface winds had decreased into the 10 to 20 mph range, with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range following sunset. For the remainder of tonight, several CAMs, including the HRRR, NAM 3km, ARW and NMN depict additional development over north MS and west TN during the predawn hours. Depicted CAM reflectivity would indicate a potential for thunder, likely aided by a low level jet around the southeast perimeter of the near surface northward-moving low. This convection will likely remain rooted in an elevated layer, but given LCLs remain very low, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if convection flares-up as the CAM consensus depicts. In summary, the short-lived tornado threat is reduced, but will remain non-zero overnight. Regarding surface winds... expect wind speeds to prevail at or below 25 mph. Brief local gusts to 40 mph still not out of the question near showers and thunderstorms, as some momentum of the low level jet is brought to the surface. PWB PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ UPDATE... Aviation Discussion Below PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ DISCUSSION... The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was over extreme SE Arkansas this afternoon. Expect the center of Cristobal to track northward through north central Arkansas late tonight, into southern Missouri Tuesday morning, and toward the upper Midwest by late Tuesday. Windy conditions will prevail through Tuesday, especially closer to the track where a wind advisory remains in effect. The strongest winds will be tonight with maximum sustained winds in the forecast area 25-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph this evening. Heavy rain from the multiple bands of showers will continue through early Tuesday which may add up to 3 inches, so a flash flood watch remains in effect over western part of the forecast area tonight. A cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night. Existing moisture along and ahead of the front will enhance the chance of showers and thunderstorms during that period with a risk of damaging winds. The rest of the forecast period from Wednesday through early next week will be relatively dry and pleasant for June. A back door cold front may lower the temperatures by a few degrees this weekend. SWC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Tropical Depression Cristobal will continue its northward track into southern MO. Scattered rain/thunderstorms will continue through most of the period. Winds SE will shift to the S-SW by end of the TAF cycle. Wind speeds will be 15-20kts with gusts 25-35kts. SMW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Dunklin. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Calhoun-Coahoma- DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate- Tunica-Yalobusha. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola- Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Alcorn-Benton MS- Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe- Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Shelby. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette- Gibson-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. && $$