299 FXUS63 KIND 081425 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1025 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will bring us one more quiet day of weather across the area before the remnants of Cristobal impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Impacts on Tuesday may include a few severe storms with damaging wind and tornadoes the primary threats, along with potential for heavy downpours. Outside of any storms, synoptic winds will be strong as well, with gusts of 35-40 MPH common both days. After Cristobal completes its extratropical transition and exits the area, the remainder of the forecast period will be dry and milder under the influence of surface high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 One more dry day expected across the area. Highs will likely range from the mid 80s to around 90 across the area, or slightly above blend numbers, with ample sunshine and good mixing expected. High clouds from Cristobal will begin to gradually push into the area from the south later today, but for most of the area this will be after peak heating. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Main focus for the short term will be on Cristobal remnants and their impact on the forecast area. Expect precipitation to hold off until after 12Z Tuesday for most of the area, with chances maximized Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cristobal will also be beginning to transition to extratropical during this time. Profiles on Tuesday, particularly in the afternoon and evening, show increasing midlevel dry intrusion along with steepening of midlevel lapse rates which will increase instability values rapidly. This, combined with an extremely strongly sheared environment, will contribute to a severe storm threat, with tornadoes and damaging winds the main threats. Large, looping hodographs are present, again during the afternoon and evening hours, signifying very strong helicity values, often typical of post tropical environments. SPC day 2 outlook currently has the area at a slight risk, which is reasonable. Would not be totally surprised to see an upgrade in future outlooks. Outside of storms, synoptic winds will be strong as well, with gusts Tuesday into Wednesday of 35-40 MPH likely to be common. Depending on the depth of boundary layer mixing, which remains somewhat uncertain at this time, could see some stronger gusts mix down as well. May need wind headlines with this afternoon or tonight's package. While tropical remnants are typically very efficient rainfall producers with very deep moist environments, ongoing transition to extratropical may save us here and prevent a widespread flash flood threat. Still, the strongest storms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall at times and at least a minor flood threat will be present. Remainder of precipitation should exit the area no later than Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Quiet weather is expected through the extended in the wake of the Cristobal remnants as high pressure settles into the region. The upcoming weekend looks refreshing with pleasant temperatures and low humidity. A highly amplified upper level flow pattern will develop once Cristobal passes and shifts towards James Bay...with a ridge focused over the Intermountain west with troughs on either side across the eastern U S and off the Pacific coast. This will place central Indiana within a dry northwest flow through much of the extended before heights begin to rise by early next week as the trough departs to the east and the ridge approaches from the west. High pressure at the surface will be influential throughout the extended with dry weather anticipated. Lower 80s are likely for highs Thursday and Friday over much of the area with cooler than normal air advecting into the Ohio Valley over the weekend as highs slip back into the 70s. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 081500Z TAF Update)... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tweaked winds and sky based on latest obs. Previous discussion follows.... VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period. An upper ridge remains across the region with high pressure at the surface which will keep skies mostly sunny. Cirrus from the remnants of Cristobal will begin to overspread the terminals this evening into the overnight as the center of the circulation tracks north into the Ozarks. More substantial cloud cover should hold off at all terminals until after 12Z Tuesday with a gradual lowering of broken ceilings Tuesday morning. Easterly winds near 10kts are expected today and tonight...veering to southeast Tuesday morning and becoming gusty by midday as a low level jet lifts around the east side of the remnant circulation and into the region. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...Nield SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Ryan/50