936 FXUS61 KBTV 070232 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1032 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are winding down this evening as a cold front crosses the region. This system will usher in cooler air for Sunday with below normal temperatures expected along with an isolated shower or two. Thereafter, high pressure dominates the first half of the work week with increasing temperatures each day. The warmest day will be Wednesday with highs approaching 90. Precipitation chances increase towards the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1026 PM EDT Saturday...Finally seeing warming cloud tops on GOES-16 IR imagery at 0200Z, and ongoing light shower activity across the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley should finally begin to fade thru 05-06Z. Remaining instability is weak/limited across the region, but with 850-700mb thermal trough in place aloft, kept a slight chance of tstms through 04Z. Earlier this evening, the high-based nature of the showers and inverted-V type profiles (2-m dewpoints in the upper 40s) generated some fast moving outflow boundaries in the Champlain Valley. Saw numerous nwly wind gusts between 40-50 mph from Chazy NY, across Lake Champlain, through Burlington and Middlebury, and finally at Rutland (KRUT) at 2241Z with 41 mph. Ongoing activity is weaker and doesn't have the benefit of the daytime boundary layer. Anticipate N-NW winds of 10-15 mph through much of the night, which should limit fog potential during the pre-dawn period. Should see mostly cloudy skies after midnight as low level moisture lingers with widespread stratus clouds expected. Lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday will be cooler with partly to mostly sunny skies. While the upper trough will depart to the east through the day, the colder air aloft will allow for steepening lapse rates and there will be enough lingering moisture for a shower or two to develop, mainly across the higher terrain. Most areas will remain dry though. Highs will be well below normal, mainly in the mid to upper 60s, with a few places exceeding 70. Any shower activity will end Sunday night as the upper trough finally moves out over the Canadian Maritimes. Skies will clear, and with light winds, expect a cool night with lows in the mid to upper 40s; some of the usual cold spots could dip down to around 40, and as low as 37F at KSLK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather on Monday with broad high pressure shifting into the region. Expect dry conditions with only some high clouds rounding the upper ridge to our west. Cool northwesterly flow will keep temperatures in the mid 70s across the North Country. Overnight, the flow turns more westerly allowing a warmer airmass to filter in. Temperatures will be warmest across the St. Lawrence River Valley and northern Champlain Valley (mid 50s) and coolest east of the Greens (mid 40s). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...Deep layer ridging staunchly in place Tuesday and Wednesday, with a transition to southwest flow and mostly dry conditions. 925 hPa temperatures increase to around 19 C as a warm front crosses, and is then a couple degrees warmer for Wednesday, suggesting warmer for Wednesday. However, during the day on Wednesday mid to upper clouds from upstream convection and strengthening southerly flow could inhibit efficiency of warming. Still, it looks like Tuesday should approach the mid 80s and then reaching 90 across several locations on Wednesday. Speaking of the accelerating southerly flow, it will likely be breezy on Wednesday, especially across the St. Lawrence River Valley and eastern Champlain Valley. 925 hPa winds of 35 to 45 knots will be present and should easily mix down to the surface. There are some discrepancies on when the low-level jet arrives, with some indications that tightening pressure gradients do not take place until later in the evening, which would keep the wind gust potential down some. For now, have indicated the potential for 30 to 35 mph gusts across the Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley. Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible on Lake Champlain Wednesday evening into Thursday night. A cold front will shift eastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An upper shortwave will eject well west and north of our area. Better moisture and dynamics will follow the shortwave northward away from our region, and the timing of the front outside the window of best diurnally-driven instability is not favorable either. NWP suite across the board depicts a narrow band of precipitation that decays as it shifts eastward across the North Country. Cooler conditions follow for the weekend, but what happens with regards to precipitation chances is a bit uncertain and dependent on how far south an embedded upper low digs and interacts with a shortwave trough rounding the Bermuda High. A position near the Great Lakes is displayed across the mean of several ensemble suites. While the operational EC holds off precipitation until Saturday, it is a bit slower than a wide range of ensemble forecasts, so think precipitation is possible on Friday, but more likely next Saturday. At least that is where the consensus lies for now, but will keep 40%-50% for now on Saturday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Rain showers and associated wind gusts have weakened for the night, though a stray shower or two cannot be ruled during the next couple of hours. Few additional showers are currently in the vicinity of MSS and could produce some lightning, but showers are expected to end by 02z. Currently VFR conditions at all TAF sites, though MVFR cigs expected during the overnight hours at all sites expect MSS. Remaining low level moisture will allow cigs to drop as the airmass cools. IFR cigs are possible at SLK, MPV, and RUT between 06-12z with blocked northwesterly flow resulting in low stratus. Fog may develop at SLK during this time as well, but NW winds of 10kts should generally limit the development of fog at many of the TAF sites. Any lingering moisture will quickly dissipate in the morning under full sun and VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Hammond