974 FXUS62 KFFC 050206 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1000 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 .Update... No changes to the forecast. 41 .Previous... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... The local forecast area is still wedged between two areas of high pressure to our west and east, allowing for some weak troughing across the area. At the surface, a weak front will be sagging south towards the forecast area, bringing moisture and some additional lift to fuel storms this afternoon and evening. In addition, a wave moving out of the Gulf is expected to cross southeastern Georgia and northern Florida bringing additional moisture to portions of central Georgia. These two features will help to being area wide high-end chance pops across much of the area through the rest of the afternoon and evening, although the highest chances for precip are across northern Georgia where likely pops have been included due to the influence from the weak front. Plus, with moderate instability combined with interaction from the front, there is the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm across far northern Georgia, in line with where the SPC has placed a very small Marginal Risk. The primary threat with any storms that do develop will be gusty winds. For Friday, with the weak front across portions of northern Georgia and ample moisture continuing to linger across the area as weak waves move through the flow, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue with the highest chances in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures today are expected to get into the 80s area wide, with some areas reaching the lower 90s, with overnight temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. For Friday afternoon, high temperatures will again be area-wide in the 80s, which is just around average for this time of year. Reaves .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Long term starts on Saturday morning where current TD Cristobal should be in the Gulf of Mexico moving northward towards the Gulf Coast. Model consensus is very high right now with the operational suite as well as most ensemble guidance bringing the storm into the LA coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Cristobal is currently sitting over the Yucatan, which has both weakened the storm and caused a broadening of the wind field that will make rapid reorganization or intensification unlikely. However, that broadening will help to bring a large slug of moisture into the CWA well ahead of and after the storm's landfall, with PWAT values staying between 1.5" and 2.5" throughout the forecast period. Cristobal is absorbed by a large trough out west which begins to move across the CONUS, though recent guidance shows some piece of the remnants may remain behind as a mid-level circulation that is removed from the jet. Additionally, latent heating will pump the ridge Cristobal is traveling under, causing a series of downstream wavebreaks which could create a cut-off low just off the coast. If this were to come to pass, unsettled weather would likely continue well beyond Cristobal's landfall for our CWA. Given the expected slug of moisture and adequate daily surface heating, forecasting daily chances of thunderstorms through the end of the long term. A weak front is forecast to move close to the CWA by Sunday morning which may provide some additional lift for rainfall/thunderstorms. Mostly went with the model blend for each day with small increases in areas with no/very low given uncertainty. Lusk && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period outside of any afternoon/evening convection. Scattered thunderstorms will dissipate through about 02Z with some reduced vsbys and wind gusts possible in any storms. Chances should diminish some overnight before increasing tomorrow with highest chances in the afternoon and evening after 15z. Some potential for patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings tomorrow morning dependent on rainfall this evening. Winds should be calm to variable overnight before becoming more southwest during the day on Friday around 8 to 10kts with some gusts possible. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium to high confidence on all elements. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 86 70 88 / 40 50 30 40 Atlanta 69 85 70 86 / 50 50 30 50 Blairsville 64 81 64 83 / 60 60 40 40 Cartersville 68 86 68 89 / 50 50 30 40 Columbus 70 89 71 88 / 40 50 40 40 Gainesville 68 85 69 86 / 50 50 30 40 Macon 70 89 70 87 / 30 50 30 40 Rome 68 88 68 89 / 50 50 30 30 Peachtree City 68 86 69 86 / 40 50 30 40 Vidalia 71 89 72 88 / 30 60 30 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...41