947 
FXUS64 KMEG 042011
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Only a few locations have been able to warm into the middle 80s
today due to abundant cloud cover and numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is currently minimal but short
term guidance has an additional round of storms along and East of
the Mississippi River prior to sunset then weakening by around 10
pm. Will maintain a low confidence of strong storms based on said
guidance.  

Overnight a ridge will begin to build back across the Midsouth
from the West. This feature will limit coverage of precipitation
tomorrow, but also result in warmer temperatures. As a result,
expect more diurnally driven thunderstorms during peak heating
tomorrow, diminishing quickly after sunset. Any of these type of
storms is capable of producing localized heavy rain, brief
damaging winds and small hail, however widespread organized 
severe weather is not expected. 

The ridge will continue to build Saturday boosting temperatures
back into the 90s across the entire Midsouth. A shortwave will
track across East Missouri into West Tennessee. Showers and
thunderstorms should be most numerous near the Tennessee River 
and Alabama state line. Once again, organized severe storms are
not expected. Dry conditions are expected Sunday with highs in the
low 90s as the focus turns to the Gulf of Mexico. 

Tropical storm Cristobal is expected to approach the Coast of
Louisiana early Sunday. Its exact track will be the single biggest
factor in our forecast early next week. Temperatures should trend
cooler due to clouds and rain could be significant. Models are in
good agreement through Monday, but diverge a bit beginning 
Tuesday morning. The ECMWF currently has a deeper low and a more 
East track over West Arkansas resulting in a better chance of 
gusty wind and heavy rain for portions of the
Midsouth...especially East Arkansas. 

By Tuesday evening into Wednesday, whats left of the storm should
get caught up in the Westerlies and begin to shift off to the
Northeast. Current WPC QPF Tuesday into Wednesday across the
Midsouth is 1-2 inches.  

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Morning convection has shifted over north MS and may affect TUP
over the next few hours. Additional development is anticipated
farther north this afternoon, but AM convection has stabilized the
boundary layer for now. Will carry VCTS after 20z in most areas
with diminishing coverage after 00z. That said, CAMs are
indicating a band of persistent overnight convection from
northeast AR across portions of west TN (mainly north of MEM).
Should this activity develop, it will likely propagate south late
tonight and early Friday. Confidence is low with regard to
convection during the latter part of the TAF period, so will play
it conservative for now. Some patchy low clouds are possible late
tonight, especially toward TUP, so that bears watching as well.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$