578 
FXUS63 KLMK 020135
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Current satellite shows encroaching mid cloud into the northern half 
of the CWA, roughly north of the Parkways, associated with a washed 
out warm front well to our north. Went ahead and updated sky grids 
to account for partly to mostly cloudy wording in the zones. Also 
bumped temperatures up a degree or two as a result of increased 
cloud coverage. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Updated 
products forthcoming.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

The Ohio Valley remains under upper ridging that currently covers 
the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near 
Cincinnati. This high will continue to get pushed southeast towards 
the North Carolina coast. As a result our winds will slowly veer 
from the southeast to the southwest tomorrow. 

Tonight, areas in southern Indiana and central Kentucky, between 
Louisville and Cincinnati, will see some high level cloud cover as a 
disturbance moves through southern Ohio. Temperatures will bottom 
out in the upper 50s with Louisville expected to remain around 60 
near morning. 

Tomorrow, the cloud cover will move to the southeast opening up 
clear skies again, and with the southerly flow, highs will likely 
hit the 90s in urban areas and upper 80s everywhere else. Dewpoint 
values will also climb back into the 60s.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Expect warm and dry conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday under a 
flattening ridge aloft. Humidity will continue its gradual increase 
under SW low-level flow, with dewpoints pushing well into the 60s. 

By Wednesday night a sfc cold front will drop southward across 
Indiana, but start to hang up as it becomes aligned parallel to the 
upper flow. Scattered showers and storms could drop into southern 
Indiana and north-central Kentucky, and could still have decent 
instability to work with even after dark. However shear will be weak 
so not expecting enough organization to justify anything more than 
the marginal risk advertised in the SPC Day 3 Outlook. 

Thursday could be the most unsettled day as a weak upper wave 
interacts with the stalled front.  Will have the highest POPs of the 
week Thursday afternoon and evening, with the standard pulse threats 
of locally gusty winds and heavy rain as the main hazards in any 
stronger storms. 

Pattern really amplifies over the weekend, with a strong upper trof 
digging along the East Coast and strong ridging building into the 
Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes. Can't rule out Friday POPs in the 
NW flow, but there's enough of a hint at a backdoor cold front to 
bring dry weather and slight relief from the humidity Saturday into 
Sunday. However, temps will still be solidly in the 80s under the 
upper ridge. 

Lower forecast confidence on Monday as it starts to become a battle 
between the ridging overhead and a tropical or sub-tropical system 
trying to push north from the Gulf Coast. Will keep POPs low at this 
point, with temps continuing to run above normal, especially at 
night.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Expect VFR conditions to continue throughout this TAF cycle as high 
pressure continues to exert influence over the region. Winds will be 
light out of the SE and variable at times before increasing by 
Tuesday late morning from the SW with gusts into the 15-20kt range.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...CG
Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...CG