898 
FXUS64 KJAN 010241
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
941 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Based on this evening's upper air sounding, dry air continues to 
limit chances for precipitation. Mostly light winds prevail out 
of the northeast leading to another night of clear skies and dry 
weather. Mostly clear skies are allowing overnight temperatures to
drop into the low 60s in most places, with upper 50s in northeast
portions of the forecast area. No major changes were made to the 
forecast. /TDB/

Prior discussion below: 

Tonight and tomorrow...
A wide expanse of high pressure is dominating the eastern half of 
the country this evening. Central MS and the ArkLaMiss region will 
continue clear skies in the overnight with very light winds out of 
the northeast, with some variability under the ridge tonight. 
Overnight lows will drop mostly into the low to mid 60s...and upper 
50s possible in the Columbus/GTR region. Tomorrow, mostly sunny 
skies with a few cumulus possible...but cu rule is very confined in 
a few spots. Light winds will continue through the day, becoming 
more easterly as the afternoon progresses. Max temps will continue 
in the mid to upper 80s to start the work week.

Monday night into next weekend...

Warmer conditions with increasing moisture will be the main 
forecast concerns for the mid to long term portions of the 
forecasts.

A steep upper ridge centered over the eastern Plains and extending
into the SE US will be in place by Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon,
a broad surface high will be centered off of the Atlantic Coast,
resulting in return flow from the Gulf in the lower levels.
Diurnal thunderstorm activity will be possible on Tuesday mainly
south of the I-20 corridor. Highs will range from the upper 80s 
to lower 90s. Diurnal storm coverage will increase throughout the 
region on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper ridge dampens and
moisture values continue to increase. Highs will be dependent on
afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover but sites free of storms
and significant sky cover could see highs get into the upper 80s
to low 90s. Mid level ridging will begin to increase in the west as
we get into Friday but diurnal thunderstorm activity and warm 
conditions will continue into the weekend as the ridge builds 
further east. 

Global models continue to indicate tropical activity increasing in
the Gulf next weekend with the remnants of Eastern Pacific 
Tropical Storm Amanda crossing Central America and moving into the
Gulf. Although all potential impacts to the northern Gulf Coast 
are just beyond this forecast period, this system will be worth 
keeping an eye on as we move forward. NHC has given it a 50% 
chance at developing into a Cyclone within the next 5 days and 
40% chance over the next two days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: 

VFR conditions and light mostly northeast wind will prevail 
through the forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  87  68  91 /   0   1   2  21 
Meridian      61  88  68  90 /   0   1   1  38 
Vicksburg     65  87  69  91 /   0   1   2  15 
Hattiesburg   63  89  69  88 /   0   2   3  40 
Natchez       65  86  68  88 /   0   1   2  19 
Greenville    62  87  67  91 /   0   0   1   9 
Greenwood     62  87  68  91 /   0   0   1  14 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$