768 FXUS63 KICT 300510 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1210 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A warm and breezy weekend is on tap, as unseasonably strong upper level high pressure builds east over Mid-America, and lee troughing strengthens across the High Plains. Thickness values will support forecast high temperatures climbing through the 80s, with near 90 degrees possible west of I-135 by Sunday. Thunderstorm-wise, thinking best chances will remain across Nebraska and northern Kansas late tonight through Sunday night, within a zone of persistent 850-700 warm/moist advection, in response to an approaching stout elevated mixed layer. Thinking this activity should remain generally north of the I-70 corridor. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Well above normal temperatures are expected much of next week, as an unseasonably strong upper ridge continues to build over Mid-America. Forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will be more reminiscent of typical July and August than early June. The warm temperatures aloft and associated lack of low level or upper level focus will also support dry weather for most through Wednesday morning, with breezy southerly winds prevailing each day as persistent lee troughing sets up across the High Plains. Thunderstorm-wise...The past few deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM progress a decaying frontal zone south into the region Wednesday through Friday, in response to shortwave energy progressing through southeast Canada. This should support increased off-and-on thunderstorm chances across the region Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Despite weak forcing, relatively weak deep layer shear, and warm temperatures aloft, strong instability should support at least an isolated severe storm threat. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020 *VFR conditions likely over the next 18 hours *Low VFR CIGs possible Saturday night *Gusty winds Saturday Mid/high clouds are beginning to spread southeast out of the northern High Plains at this time, and will likely move over central/eastern KS overnight. Still thinking TSRA over the High Plains will weaken as they move southeast towards KS, but this will be monitored for possible amendments or changes in later forecasts. The chance of SHRA/TSRA may increase some Saturday evening/night, possibly glancing portions of central and southern KS. For now, I added some SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds to account for the potential, but later forecasts may need to add a SHRA or TSRA mention. Otherwise, increasing south/southeast winds can be expected through the day Saturday, likely continuing into Saturday evening. LLWS cannot be ruled out at KRSL/KGBD, but the potential looks too low to mention for now. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 10 0 Hutchinson 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 10 0 Newton 58 80 59 83 / 0 0 10 0 ElDorado 58 79 59 82 / 0 0 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 59 81 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 59 86 62 89 / 10 10 10 10 Great Bend 59 87 63 88 / 10 10 10 0 Salina 58 82 61 84 / 10 10 20 10 McPherson 58 81 61 84 / 10 10 10 0 Coffeyville 58 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 57 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 57 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 58 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...RM