749 FXUS63 KJKL 291721 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 121 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 121 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area in the past hour. The best coverage is occurring from the Bluegrass region down through the I-75 corridor, closer to a 700 mb short wave trough as analyzed on the SPC Mesoanalysis page. Isolated convection has also initiated further east, where convective temperatures are being met. Storms to the east have been beefier, as 40-50 kts of effective shear has bolstered these cells. Can't rule out some small hail over the next hour or so, before the better effective shears exit towards West Virginia. UPDATE Issued at 937 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 Some shower activity has initiated across the area this morning, in response to a passing short wave trough, as seen on water vapor imagery. Have freshened up the PoP trends to account for these showers. Some partial clearing is noted across central Tennessee/Kentucky, and this should move in across our area behind this initial wave, allowing for a temporary lull in the action, until the surface front approaches later today. The rest of the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 The current forecast is on track this morning so have mainly just updated the sky cover and T/Td grids per the current obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 08z sfc analysis shows Low pressure moving into the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front approaching Kentucky from the northwest. Ahead of this, a few light showers have developed but most are west of the JKL CWA aside from a batch entering the western Cumberland Valley from Tennessee. The skies have mostly clouded back over in advance of the front, as well. This is helping to keep the fog under control in the main observation sites, but likely there is a good batch found near the rivers. Currently temperatures are running in the mid 60s on the ridges with low 60s found in the valleys. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are generally in the low 60s across the area with light and variable winds. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast period. They all depict the former closed upper low to our west getting picked up by a larger northern stream trough today and sweeping east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This brings with it plenty of energy and some decent height falls but the mid level winds suggest confluence on the left entrance region of a south to north 3h jet streak east of the area likely precluding a widespread rain or strong thunderstorm event with this trough. The 5h trough axis passes through the area later tonight followed by rising heights and more benign northwest flow into the start of the weekend. Given the small model spread through the period have favored the blended NBM solution for most elements, though did lean more toward the CAMs, NAM12, and continuity for details with the convection today. Sensible weather will feature a warm and humid day for most in the area with some scattered to numerous showers and storms developing through mid afternoon before the activity diminishes west to east post frontal later this evening and overnight. Despite the rains that most will see the clouds will likely stay thick enough to limit the fog development tonight to mainly the river valleys. However, should the clouds clear early or thin more quickly the fog could become more widespread and dense overnight into Saturday morning. Saturday looks like a picture perfect day in the wake of the front with cooler and drier air moving into this part of Kentucky thanks to arriving high pressure. Look for returning sunshine and highs only in the low to mid 70s. Only made minor point based adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints from the NBM through Saturday. For PoPs - ended up on the high side of NBM numbers today preferring the NAM12 PoP/QPF depiction and continuity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 Surface ridging will continue to build into the region through the latter half of the weekend and into the early portions of next week. This will continue to provide a pleasant and dry stretch of weather through Monday with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows into the 40s and 50s (coldest in the valleys). Heights will begin to build across the region by Tuesday signaling a return to milder conditions by the middle of next week. The upper level pattern looks to flatten out some almost becoming zonal. This will open up the possibility for more unsettled weather as a series of disturbances could move through the flow around the middle of the week. However, with low confidence on timing and placement of these features, rain chances will remain quite low for now. Did maintain thunder chances during this mid week time period as we should have sufficient instability if precipitation does develop. There is also some weak support for a cold front to drop south and stall across the region. With increased moisture along the boundary, the east-west oriented boundary would lead to a threat for locally heavy rain or flash flood threat. We will continue to monitor this trend as the boundary placement is still uncertain. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 The fog so far has been less prevalent this morning thanks to thicker clouds moving through. Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the aviation period, with the exception of a direct hit from a more intense shower or thunderstorm that could bring some MVFR or even brief IFR after 14z today as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This front moves through tonight with low clouds and some mainly MVFR fog possible. Light and variable winds are expected until around 14z this morning, when winds will start to pick up out of southwest to west southwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts or so in the afternoon as the front approaches. Winds then settle tonight as high pressure starts to move into the area. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF