335 FXUS62 KTAE 261949 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 349 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Coverage of convection today will favor the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama and have raised and kept chances longer there this afternoon and evening. Coverage will decrease overnight with isolated showers returning to coastal sections and southwest Georgia towards dawn. Decreased rain chances overall overnight then increased towards dawn. Gusty winds with taller convection could occur this afternoon but overall the 12Z TAE Raob doesn't support widespread strong winds and the lapse rates are poor once again today. Skies outside of rain will be mostly cloudy. Lows will fall to around 70 degrees. .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Thursday Night]... A wet pattern is expected to continue through the end of the work week as a large upper level cut-off low slowly makes it's way from Texas/Oklahoma into the southern Mississippi valley tomorrow. A very moist airmass is expected to be in place through the work week with PW values exceeding 1.7 inches for much of the area. This abundance of moisture coupled with the weak forcing for ascent from the upper level cut-off low will help produce scattered storm activity across our area for the remainder of this period. Generally a broad 0.5 inch to 1 inch across the area with slightly higher amounts of 1-2 inches expected across the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama counties over the next two days. Temperatures will be warm as much of the area climbs into the upper 80s. The abundance of moisture and high surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will however make it feel like its in the low 90s. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... The aforementioned upper level cut-off will still be lingering across our region for the early part of this period. The best area of forcing is expected be over our region on Friday. An enhanced region of convergence is expected across our region on Friday as a strong surface high pressure system off the east coast of Florida will funnel warm moist tropical air into our region. This moist air coupled with the remnants of the upper level cut- off low is expected to bring heavy rain across our region. Currently with the uncertainty surrounding the propagation and evolution of the cut-off low, exact precipitation amounts at this time will be difficult to pin down. Overall with the eastward ejection of the upper level cut-off low on Saturday off the east coast, a brief dry period is expected by Sunday and through the remainder of this period. Highs will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region through the whole period. Lows will generally remain in the upper 60s through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Wednesday] Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. Cloud decks will remain predominately MVFR or low VFR. Tempo IFR possible under stronger convection. IFR conds likely overnight into Wednesday mid morning at which time cigs will rise to MVFR. && .MARINE... Easterly winds will slowly transition to southeasterly by tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light (less than 10 knots) through the workweek. A wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Local rivers are mostly steady. A wet pattern will be in place this week with 0.5 inch to 2.5 inches of rain expected over the next seven days. Isolated higher totals are likely with stronger storms. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 89 70 88 68 / 30 40 20 70 20 Panama City 71 86 73 86 72 / 50 30 40 60 30 Dothan 68 84 68 85 68 / 50 60 30 70 30 Albany 69 85 71 86 70 / 40 50 20 70 20 Valdosta 70 88 70 88 69 / 20 50 10 70 10 Cross City 70 89 71 90 70 / 20 20 10 50 10 Apalachicola 73 84 73 84 72 / 30 20 30 60 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Bunker