558 FXUS64 KMOB 222103 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 403 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Ridging, both surface and aloft continues to nose into the area from the east tonight and Saturday. Deeper moisture is gradually returning to the region in the predominately south to southeast flow, especially over out western counties (ie- interior southeast Mississippi). With this increasing moisture, with daytime heating we have some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon which will continue into the early evening hours before dissipating. Our daily wet microburst checklist came up with a Moderate Risk, so a few of the storms could produce some strong gusty winds, but the overall severe threat is low (although a few storms may may produce a few brief severe wind gusts). By mid evening, most of the convection will have ended and look for generally rain free conditions tonight (with perhaps a few coastal showers late). Expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow as the same pattern continues. Lows tonight will range from the mid and upper 60s over interior locations to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Saturday will continue to be summer like, with most interior locations climbing into the lower 90s with mid and upper 80s closer to the coast and some low to mid 80s along the immediate beaches. /12 && .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper level ridge will continue to build from the western Atlantic across the southeast states. An upper level longwave trough will meanwhile slowly move eastward across the Intermountain West/Four Corners Region toward the Plains. A surface ridge of high pressure will also extend over the western Atlantic and eastern CONUS. Despite the upper ridging, plenty of deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The upper trough will slowly progress eastward on Monday, leading to an uptick in showers and thunderstorm chances across the area. A few storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts each afternoon as MLCAPE values range as high as 1500-2500 J/KG along with DCAPE values around or slightly above 1000 J/KG. Warm and muggy conditions otherwise continue through the period. /13 && .EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The southern portion of the upper trough to our west will cutoff into an upper low which will meander over Texas through Friday. As this occurs, an upper ridge that had built over the eastern CONUS shifts east over the western Atlantic, leading to weak height falls aloft over the region. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic maintains onshore flow throughout the period, which continues to supply Gulf moisture to the region. The resulting overall pattern will be unsettled, with showers and storms possible throughout the period in a moderately unstable but weakly-sheared environment. The activity will be most concentrated during peak daytime heating with a focus along the inland advancing sea breeze. However, at least isolated pops continue overnight due to weak forcing downstream from the upper low and a continue moist and unstable airmass. Stronger storms during peak heating hours could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds, but due to weak shear the overall severe threat remains low through the period. Temperatures remain fairly steady throughout the extended term. Highs reach the mid to upper 80s each afternoon. Lows only dip into the mid to upper 60s (low 70s along immediate coast) each night. /13 && .MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure stretching west over the southeastern states and the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring a light to moderate onshore flow to the marine area through the weekend into the early coming week. The persistent onshore flow will bring little change in seas over the weekend, but gradually building of seas over the open Gulf waters by the middle part of next week. This increase in seas, from around 1 to 2 feet early in the period to around 3 to 4 feet late in the period will be due to the persistent and long fetch of southeasterly flow, as well as the the development of a storm system to the west of the marine area over Texas. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms to periodically occur through the period, especially early next week during the late night and early morning hours. /12 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob