312 FXHW60 PHFO 221340 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 340 AM HST Fri May 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue today, thanks to the subtropical ridge to our north. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Expect gentle trade winds over the holiday weekend and into next week as the ridge is nudged closer to the islands. && .DISCUSSION... Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas today as moderate to breezy trade winds continue, thanks to the subtropical ridge to our north. A front passing eastward to the north of the ridge will push the ridge southward, closer to the islands, over the weekend. This will weaken trade wind strength across local waters by Saturday. Shower coverage and intensity will fluctuate as pockets of moisture move through the islands. Windward areas will see most of this rainfall, with greater amounts of clouds and showers expected during the overnight and early morning hours. Satellite loop shows low clouds and showers east of the state will likely linger across the islands today. Farther east, a more organized low cloud swirl looks to bring another increase in showers Friday night. Over the holiday weekend and into next week, the subtropical ridge will remain close enough to keep trade winds rather light over the smaller islands. The Big Island will see stronger trade winds given its greater distance from the ridge. Limited windward showers will continue. However, with the lighter winds, some limited afternoon convective showers are possible for interior and higher elevation areas. && .AVIATION... Showery trade wind conditions are expected to continue today, especially through the early morning hours. Although the bulk of the showers will favor windward and mountain locations, some will make it into leeward sections periodically. MVFR CIGS and VSBYS will be possible in and around these showers. Trades will remain gusty today, then gradually lower tonight into Saturday. AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for areas south through west of the mountains below 8000 feet for tempo moderate turbulence. AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect above 2000 feet for mountain obscuration for north through east facing sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. && .MARINE... The relatively tight pressure gradient southwest of a surface high pressure system located far northeast of the state is expected to maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon or the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. As we head into the weekend, fronts passing far north of the islands are expected to weaken the pressure gradient across the area. Therefore, we are not expecting SCA conditions over any marine zones from this weekend into early next week. Surf will likely remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along all shorelines through the middle of next week. Expect minimal surf along most south facing shores through tonight due to small background swell energy. Small south-southeast and south-southwest swells are expected to fill in this weekend, and will likely hold into early next week. This will likely bring surf back up to near the summer average along south facing shores from Sunday through early next week. Surf along most north and west facing shores will likely remain small today. A small, mid-period northwest swell arriving tonight is expected to persist through early next week. This swell will produce small surf along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from Saturday into the middle of next week. Surf produced by this swell will gradually diminish around mid-week as the period of the swell lowers. Modest surf will likely continue along east facing shores today. However, as the trades weaken, surf will gradually trend down along most east facing shores from this weekend through the middle of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Powell AVIATION...Gibbs MARINE...Houston