372 
FXUS65 KFGZ 212105
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
205 PM MST Thu May 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy winds will return on Friday and Saturday.
Critical fire weather conditions will occur Friday afternoon. A 
warming trend beginning Sunday will last into next week as strong 
high pressure builds in across the southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface observations continue to show mostly light
winds across northern Arizona this afternoon influenced by a weak
gradient aloft. As these winds become light and variable this
evening, temperatures will again fall to below normal for many
areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A few low-lying areas
in the high country could again experience below freezing low 
temperatures Friday morning. Make sure to cover your outside 
gardens and plants if you are in one of these locations.

A southwesterly mid-level gradient will build over the Southwest
by Friday morning. The gradient will increase wind speeds and
allow for these breezy winds to mix to the surface beginning late
Friday morning. The strongest wind gusts, upwards of 40 mph, are
expected to occur in western Coconino County. These winds and low
relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions for
much of Friday afternoon in western Coconino County. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued from 1 PM - 6 PM MST Friday for these 
conditions.

Wind speeds will remain locally breezy in certain leeward areas
Friday night and become breezy again by Saturday afternoon. The
strongest wind gusts Saturday, up to 35 mph, are expected in 
northeastern Arizona. Near-critical fire weather conditions are
probable Saturday afternoon in these breezy locations north of the
Mogollon Rim.

Lighter upper-level flow will return to northern Arizona Saturday
night as the Great Basin trough exits the region.

Heights aloft will begin to increase behind the trough and cause 
rising temperatures everyday beginning Sunday. There is fair
certainty in a warming trend next week as ensemble temperature 
spreads remain relatively constricted. Daytime temperatures by the
middle of next week could be ten to fifteen degrees Fahrenheit 
above normal for the end of May. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Southwest winds up to 15 kts will continue 
till 02Z then decrease overnight. Breezier conditions return after
17Z Friday. Expect southwesterly daytime winds of 13-23 kts with 
gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.
 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwesterly winds and low relative 
humidities will create critical fire weather conditions Friday. A 
Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday from 1 PM - 6 PM MST.
Near critical fire weather conditions are probable Saturday as
breezy afternoon winds continue.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry conditions and lighter winds will 
persist. Temperatures will warm each day in the period. 


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM 
to 6 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ104-106-107.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...NL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff