936 
FXUS64 KTSA 211510
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few light showers are ongoing this morning across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas, with the bulk
of the convective activity remaining just to our northwest in 
parts of Kansas. The biggest change to the going forecast was to
reduce lightning/thunder chances this morning and to adjust POPs
for the current coverage. Expect scattered thunderstorms to
develop early to mid afternoon, primarily across eastern Oklahoma,
with some expansion possible into mainly west central Arkansas
late. Overall severe weather potential looks low through the day,
although some locally higher potential will exist in far southeast
Oklahoma in the vicinity of a frontal boundary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 645 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across eastern Oklahoma
this afternoon as weak upper disturbance approaches from the 
southwest. Exact timing of storms still remains challenging and 
generally handled with tempo/prob groups. MVFR ceilings are 
expected this afternoon/evening with lingering showers
overnight.  

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today into 
this evening as isentropic lift increases across the 
area and a weak mid-level shortwave lifts out of Texas.
There is the potential that a few of the storms later 
this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe.
There may be a lull in the chances late this evening 
before more scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
overnight as a warm front lifts to near the Red River. 

Friday will see more potential for showers and thunderstorms 
as a mid-level shortwave currently over southern California
moves across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This 
shortwave along with another moving out in the central Plains will
help push a weak surface boundary into the area. Again some of 
the storms Friday afternoon and evening could be strong to severe 
with large hail and strong gusty winds the main concern.

As we go through the Memorial Day Weekend and into next week, 
the weather pattern will remain unsettled with several rounds 
of showers and thunderstorms anticipated as a cold front slowly
moves into the area Sunday into Monday and stalls out. This 
boundary and the active southwesterly flow aloft will provide 
the impetus for repeated waves of showers and thunderstorms   
into the middle of next week. 2 to 4 inches of rain look common 
from now through the holiday weekend across eastern Oklahoma 
and western Arkansas will locally higher amounts possible. 
The potential for strong to severe storms will continue to 
exist during this time as well. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22