579 FXUS64 KLCH 191611 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1111 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicting scattered to broken stratocu streaming southeast over the eastern half of the forecast area late this morning. Clear skies elsewhere. A very warm afternoon ahead along with considerably more humidity as dewpoints trend upward. Forecast looks on track and see no need for an update at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAFS AVIATION... Areas of ground fog have developed this morning which have resulted in large swings in visibility over the last hour. Expect this fog to diminish quickly over the next hour beneath mostly clear skies with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the day. A large upper level low centered over southern Illinois and Indiana will wrap enough upper level moisture around its western side to result in SCT high clouds by late this morning into the afternoon. This low will steadily sink southward through the day exerting greater influence across the region by late this evening into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern Louisiana late this evening potentially impacting AEX by early Wednesday morning. The precipitation is not expected to reach far enough south to impact the coastal terminals. However low level moisture pooling is expected to result in the development of MVFR CIGs early Wednesday morning as well as patchy fog. Jones PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ DISCUSSION... Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over the nrn Gulf while a weak trof is noted just north of the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows our next cutoff low approaching the Mid-South while ridging is in place from the Mexican Plateau nwd through the Plains States. Satellite imagery shows clear skies prevailing over the area...likewise, local 88Ds are PPINE. Obs indicate some patchy fog developing primarily across the Lake Area and portions of sern TX with excellent radiating conditions in place. In the short term, decided to insert a patchy fog mention for portions of the area based on sfc obs (ground fog has been abundant here at KLCH all night) and various fog guidance. Once the fog burns off by mid-morning, expecting another quiet day with just very gradual increasing cloudiness for most of the forecast area. By very late afternoon, but more likely this evening, short-range guidance shows a few showers or thunderstorms beginning to develop over the nern portions of the forecast area in best proximity to the meandering trof and mid/upper-level cutoff low sinking swd toward the region. With forecast soundings for that portion of the area indicating MUCAPES exceeding 3K, good instability and ESRH to 300, SPC is highlighting a marginal risk for severe storms through tonight. Forecast soundings are also showing a bit of capping around H7, thus storm development is far from a certainty at this time. Guidance this morning has come in even warmer than previously advertised with the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area now progged to see highs in the lower 90s...with temps as high as 94F over portions of interior sern TX. As we approach the weekend, we'll see a return to a more summerlike pattern as the mid/upper low pulls off to the northeast and leaves the area in a relatively zonal flow aloft. A return of a more srly low-level flow will allow MRH/PWAT values to rise and convection, mainly diurnally-driven, to develop each day. MARINE... No CWF headlines are currently anticipated through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 82 65 90 / 30 30 10 20 LCH 70 88 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 LFT 70 86 70 90 / 20 20 0 10 BPT 73 89 73 88 / 0 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...23