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FXUS64 KSJT 182304
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
604 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF
period. However, some minor gusty conditions are possible for
late tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

HOT conditions returning to West Central Texas, with temperatures 
climbing well into the 90s so far this afternoon. Upper level ridge 
right over the area on Tuesday, with the low level thermal ridge 
reaching its peak. Hottest day of the week on Tuesday with afternoon 
highs climbing to near or above the 100 degree mark in many 
locations, especially along and south of a weak frontal boundary 
sagging into the area. This front will sag to someplace near I-20 by 
tomorrow afternoon, with light northeast winds behind the boundary. 
San Angelo may be flirting with record heat conditions (105 degrees 
back in 2003). 

Next question is the question of POPs. Latest CAMs like the NAM, 
NAMNEST, and the TTU-WRF show isolated convection developing and 
just north of the front. This will be an area where the northeast 
winds allow surface moisture to pool north of the boundary. With 
this in mind, have opted to add a mention of Isolated Storms to a 
portion along and north of I-20 late Tuesday afternoon.

$$

07

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Early Next Week)

The upper-level ridge will remain in place through Wednesday,
resulting in sunny skies and very warm temperatures across West
Central Texas through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, the
ridge will start to break down, due to a broad trough that will
build in across the western US. Shortwave impulses will rotate
around the base of this trough into the southern Plains starting
Wednesday night. As a result, chances for a few showers and 
thunderstorms will increase Thursday and through much of the 
weekend, with temperatures otherwise remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s. By early next week, a stronger trough and associated 
cold front will push through the southern Plains resulting in 
additional chances for thunderstorms with temperatures remaining
at or close to seasonal normals.

SK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70 101  68  89 /   0  10   5  10 
San Angelo 	 70 104  70  98 /   0   5   0   5 
Junction 	 67 101  67  97 /   0   5   0   5 
Brownwood 	 66 101  67  93 /   0  10   5   5 
Sweetwater 	 70 101  67  91 /   0  10   5  10 
Ozona      	 66 101  67  95 /   0   5   0   5 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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