369 FXUS64 KLCH 170454 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1154 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 .DISCUSSION... 17/06Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... Nighttime microphysics channel shows drier air around the southern periphery of a low over NE TX, shifting high clouds to the east with just a few stratocu bands acrs SE TX/SW LA. As a result, mostly VFR (and nearly SKC at LCH/BPT) conditions are noted at the southern terminals, with ocnl MVFR cigs at AEX where greater coverage of low clouds is situated. A trough axis extending south from the low is shifting winds more southwesterly at BPT, and this wind shift will continue eastward acrs the area overnight, with winds bcmg more westerly and gusty during the day Sunday. Overall, few changes to the TAF package this evening, with MVFR cigs expected at the southern terminals around daybreak before improving Sunday morning. Sctd SHRA/TSRA will be possible during the day, with rain chcs diminishing from west to east Sunday evening as the low pres system moves east. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ UPDATE... The cluster of storms that moved through se Tx and srn La is currently exiting Vernon parish this evening... lifting to the north following the sfc low feature. NWS Radar is also picking up a few showers down in the gulf offshore of western Cameron parish lifting to the north. Will monitor this activity through the evening hours. Otherwise... a quiet night on tap across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. No updates anticipated at this time. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ DISCUSSION... 17/00Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... VFR conditions acrs the area with just a few stratocu beneath a BKN swath of cirrus. Outside of a few showers acrs the Lakes area of SE TX, convection appears to be pretty much done for the next several hours. VFR should prevail through 08-09Z before MVFR cigs fill in acrs the area, with a few showers possible again late tonight into Sunday as low pres acrs TX moves east. Winds will shift SW then W Sunday morning, strengthening to 10-20 KT and bcmg gusty. Cigs expected to improve to VFR by midday at the southern sites, while MVFR cigs expected to linger at AEX. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system and associated cold front will be moving across the region through early Monday. A moist airmass will remain ahead of the frontal system bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the instability during Sunday, some stronger storms may develop with gusty winds and torrential down pours. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined the forecast area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. A drier and more stable pattern will move into the forecast area behind the front and continue through mid week. Rua DISCUSSION... A MCV feature that was attached to the MCS that went through the forecast area earlier today, is drifting north across northeast Texas. Some drier and stable air wrapped around this system into the forecast area, and with airmass worked over, forecast area has been rather quiet on the convection side since about mid-morning. However, some breaks in the cloudiness over southeast Texas has lead to modest instability, and therefore some showers are developing across the Piney Woods. This activity will be possible through sunset. The MCV will drift around northeast Texas tonight. Best development for convection is expected to be closer to the center of the vortex, as is usually the case with these features, and therefore the best pops tonight will be over upper southeast Texas. A short wave and associated cold front across the Plains will move east-southeast on Sunday and merge with the MCV, that will then push across the forecast area on Sunday afternoon into evening. Still looking at a very moist airmass ahead of this feature with projected PWAT values over 1.75 inches, which is over the 90th percentile over SPC daily climatology, and when moisture values tend to bring about heavy rainfall. So would expect a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms as this system moves across. Question to how strong the storms will get, and thus how high the rainfall rates will be, will depend on the instability. For now the instability is projected to be on the modest side so this may keep activity in check. However, due to the high moisture content, The Weather Prediction Center does have the forecast area outlined in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall during Sunday. Overall shear profiles are rather modest on Sunday, so this will probably limit any severe threat. However, once again, if any pockets of high instability can develop, then a low end wind threat may have a chance. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has the forecast area outlined in just a general thunderstorm outlook. Once the system passes off to the east on early Monday, a drier and more stable weather pattern looks to be in store for a couple of days. Southerly winds in the low level return on Wednesday, and with that an increase in the muggies again. Current runs of the global ensemble means and the NBM, have pops around 10 percent each day from the mid-week through the end of the week. Some operational guidance does depict isolated diurnal activity possible as the week progresses. However, until the global models become more consistent, will keep the NBM pops and leave out any mention of showers. Rua MARINE... Moderate onshore flow will continue to over the coastal waters into a surface low over northeast Texas tonight. The occasional light to moderate onshore winds will continue until a cold front moves through the coastal waters early Monday. A light to modest offshore will then develop behind the front and persist until Wednesday when high pressure moves off to the east. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 80 63 83 / 40 70 30 10 LCH 68 82 67 85 / 20 40 40 20 LFT 69 82 68 84 / 30 50 40 30 BPT 68 83 68 85 / 20 40 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...24