386 
FXUS64 KOHX 170453
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1153 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

No major updates needed to the forecast this evening. Made minor
changes to the hourly temperatures to align with current obs, and
we should still see low temperatures in the low to mid 60s 
tomorrow morning. Precip should hold off until after sunrise 
mainly in the west near the Tennessee River tomorrow morning. 
It's not until late morning and early afternoon that storms start 
to develop over the remainder of the area. There could be a strong
storm or two. There is at least some instability available with 
models showing between 500 and 800 j/kg of surface based CAPE, but
0-6 km bulk shear is less than 30 knots so it'll be difficult to 
organize updrafts unless our shear increases. Tomorrow night still
looks like a better chance of widespread precip as a cold front 
begins to slowly move through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue through the TAF
period with low level clouds increasing during the day on Sunday.
Widely scattered -SHRA/-TSRA expected to develop Sunday
afternoon/evening especially around CKV. Light south to southeast
winds early in the TAF period will increase Sunday morning with
gusts up to 25 knots at times.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........Shamburger