035 FXUS61 KBTV 150541 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... As a warm front lifts into our area tonight some light rain showers will move into the area. Rain showers will last through the day Friday, and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible especially over southern Vermont during the afternoon. Rain will come to an end late Friday, giving way to a dry weekend with highs near seasonal normals. Chances for rain showers return Sunday night through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 121 AM EDT Friday...Knocked down PoPs a bit for the overnight hours with this early morning update. Radar showing some weak returns as the warm front pushes through, but still have not received any measurable rain at the surface due to dry air at the surface. Otherwise, forecast on track. Low pressure system over the Great Lakes area tonight will track eastward towards our area, spreading clouds and moisture ahead of it along an 850mb warm front. Will have some scattered light rain showers over our area overnight. Showers will increase in areal coverage early Friday morning with low also approaching our western zones, then crossing our forecast area during the day on Friday. With low tracking right across our forecast area, only our southern Vermont zones will really get into the warm sector where the better surface instability will exist. Some 60+ dewpoints are anticipated to reach our southern Vermont zones, further enhancing the surface based instability. Areas even further south of our forecast area will have the best chance for thunderstorms. SPC has placed that part of our forecast area under a slight risk for thunderstorms, and have mentioned heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail from roughly Addison and Orange counties southward. PWATs edge up around 1.4", therefore heavy rain will also be possible in any thunderstorms. As low pressure system continues to push eastward Friday night chance for showers will rapidly drop off. Total precipitation will range from about a half an inch along the international border, to an inch in far southern Vermont. Any areas with thunderstorms could have slightly higher totals. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EDT Thursday...The upper shortwave trough will pull away to the east on Saturday, setting us up under north to northwest flow. Hence expect Saturday will start out with plentiful cloud cover and lingering mountain showers. Conditions will improve through the day, with perhaps some sun peaking through by mid-late afternoon. Partly cloudy skies prevail Saturday night, increasing over southern areas late. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, followed by lows in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 344 PM EDT Thursday...Next week will start out rainy as upper low pressure slowly moves southeastward from the Upper Midwest. Moisture streams northward ahead of the low, bringing rain to the North Country by Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night and Monday. High pressure will sink south out of Canada thereafter, shunting the best moisture southward. The high will continue to build southward as we head toward mid week, and this combined with the upper low cutting off and moving south toward the southeastern states will keep a subtropical system off the East Coast, scooting near the NC coast and then shifting eastward and remaining well south of the benchmark. As such, expect drier weather will resume by later Tuesday and persist through mid week. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals, warming up into the upper 60s/low 70s by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Warm front will push through tonight, resulting in ceilings lowering to MVFR levels and some scattered light showers between 09Z and 14Z. Should see brief lifting of ceilings to 2000 to 4000 ft AGL after 14Z, but flying conditions will deteriorate again during the afternoon as another round of precipitation moves through. This afternoon's rain could be heavy at times, and can't rule out some thunderstorms between 21Z and 06Z, especially over southern Vermont. Any thunderstorms could contain locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Have not included mention of t-storms in this TAF package due to uncertainty on timing and locations, but may need to add them in to KRUT TAF in subsequent TAF packages today. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will generally be under 10 kts through 06Z Saturday. Winds will start off light and variable early this morning, then become southwesterly 5-10 kts after 12Z. Winds will trend variable after 18Z as the center of a low pressure system tracks over the North Country, then trend northwesterly 5-10 kts after 00Z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Duell/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Duell