766 
FXUS64 KMEG 142336
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

.DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ 

Current radar imagery depicts a few pop up showers over northern 
Mississippi which will end with the loss of daytime heating. 
Current satellite imagery shows mostly scattered cumulus clouds 
around the area with southerly breezy conditions. Lows tonight 
will generally be in the upper 60s. 

By Friday a shortwave will phase through the area pushing showers 
into our northern portions late Friday morning. CAM guidance suggest 
this activity may develop into an bow over Missouri then propagate 
into eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. The line has the
potential to decrease in activity as it dives south, but it 
depends on cold pool interactions. Either way, the main hazards 
appear to be damaging winds as the main threats with point click 
soundings showing low level bulk shear near 30 knots mainly north 
of our area. SPC does have marginal coverage for severe 
thunderstorms in eastern west of the Mississippi River tomorrow 
but overall confidence for severe storms is low. 

By Saturday as a low situated over central Texas, a southeastward 
moving cold front will increase rain and thunderstorm potential to 
the Mid-South. The aforementioned cold front will eventually push
across the region Sunday ending rain chances. Severe weather 
isn't expected at this time Saturday into Sunday, with some 
instability and minimal shear. However, the better instability 
looks to be along the front. Will continue to monitor. Highs this 
weekend will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. 

A closed low to our northeast will place region under a an amplified 
ridge by Monday. This will result in drier weather for the Mid-South 
and temperatures near normal for the beginning of the week. 

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF Set

Some lingering diurnal convection may impact KTUP over the next
hour or two. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through 08Z
when stratus will begin to spread northward up through the
Mississippi Delta. Initially expect the stratus to stay west of
the Mississippi River until 12Z. Don't think it will ever expand
as far east as KMKL and KTUP. Around 15Z, expect some showers to
begin developing along an old outflow boundary that is expected to
sink southward from convection occurring across Missouri during
the overnight hours tonight. As the boundary interacts with 
daytime heating, thunderstorms could develop, but for now just 
have mention of VCSH wording at all the TAF sites. Winds for most 
part will be from the south at 8-12 KTS. Although, can't rule out 
direction changing behind the outflow boundary.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$