863 
FXUS65 KFGZ 142108
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
208 PM MST Thu May 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will warm into the weekend, with less
wind. A strong low pressure system will move through the Great
Basin early next week, bringing potentially very windy conditions
to Arizona. A brief cool down will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday
before warmer weather returns for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather is anticipated through much of the
weekend. Daytime temperatures will be on a warming trend as
heights rise across the region. Temperatures over the weekend will
be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect only light 
afternoon breezes on Friday and Saturday as the pressure gradient 
will be fairly weak. We will see a slight increase in wind speeds
on Sunday as a ridge shifts east of the state and a deep trough of
low pressure takes shape off the California coast.

Operational and ensemble model guidance are in good agreement on
this trough ejecting into the Great Basin on Monday and Tuesday.
This will likely bring a round of very windy conditions to
northern Arizona, especially on Tuesday as a strong front passes 
through. Latest indications continue to suggest widespread 
advisory level gusts across the area, with the potential for some
warning level speeds north of Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned over the
coming days on this potential wind event. 

A brief cooldown is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, before
another warming trend begins for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are expected for 
the next 24 hours. Winds southwest 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts 
will diminish around 02Z. Southwest winds will increase again 17-
19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and breezy afternoon southwest winds 
through Saturday with near normal temperatures. 

.Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal 
and dry conditions through Monday. Southwest winds will become 
stronger each day through Tuesday. Expect near critical fire weather 
conditions by Monday afternoon. Winds will become even stronger 
Tuesday.  

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff