353 FXUS61 KBTV 140537 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 137 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and calm conditions overnight will lead to lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. As high pressure crests overhead tomorrow, highs will warm nicely into the mid to upper 60s. Clouds and precipitation chances increase towards Friday morning as low pressure moves into the region. Widespread rain is expected with this system with the potential for a few rumbles of thunder across southern Vermont. Dry weather returns for Saturday with highs right around seasonal normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...No significant changes to the forecast with the early morning update. Generally looking at quiet weather over the next 24-30 hours across the North Country as upper level ridge axis begins to shift ewd from the Great Lakes region. Winds are already beginning to subside with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. Clear and calm conditions will provide good radiational cooling potential overnight tonight with most locations dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s, with low to mid 20s in the deeper hollows across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Frost/Freeze headlines are in effect across the North Country for locations outside the northern Adirondack and NEK (the frost/freeze program is yet to start in the Adirondacks and NEK). Thursday should feature another nice late Spring day as the North Country is situated directly underneath the upper level ridge. As winds begin to turn around to the SW, 925mb temperatures climb towards 7-8C tomorrow, supportive of highs near 10 degrees warmer than today in the mid to upper 60s. With the amplified ridge out ahead of our next system, have slowed the onset of precipitation to after 00z Friday therefore expected only an increase in high level clouds throughout the day on Thursday. Precipitation will begin to creep into our western zones between 06-09z before spreading eastwards towards 12z. Overall, QPF will be very light through this time period with generally less than 0.10" expected. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...Low pressure system continues to approach our area then pass to our southwest during the day Friday. Will have warm frontal boundary stretched across our area and remain the focus for showers on Friday. Then as the low slides eastward, precipitation will finally come to an end early Friday night. Models continue to indicate some marginal instability and a chance for some thunderstorms mainly across our most Southern zones closer to the track of the low. Any convective rain showers/thunderstorms could contain some locally heavy rainfall, with PW values forecast over 1.25", which is above the 90th percentile. With the boundary oriented west to east, may see some training convective showers over southern VT, which would further support the potential for some locally heavy rainfall. QPF estimates from Thursday night through Friday night range from around a quarter of an inch near the international border up to about an inch in Southern Vermont, locally higher if any areas see convection. Max temps on Friday will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest south, with temperatures remaining mild overnight and lows ranging through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...On Saturday as low pressure that affects our region on Friday continues to pull eastward and away from the area will have a large ridge of surface high pressure build into our region out of Canada. We'll have decreasing clouds through the day Saturday and highs reaching the 60s areawide. A low pressure system centered near Chicago early on Sunday will begin to track eastward towards our area, and be centered near Lake Erie by Monday morning. Will have an increase in clouds on Sunday, but precipitation should stay out of our area. Better chance for rain will come Sunday night into Monday as low passes once again to our southwest. From Monday night through Wednesday our weather looks much dryer with large surface and upper level ridging across the area. We'll also have warmer than normal temperatures in this timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions expected throughout the 24 hour TAF period with winds under 10 kts. High pressure will keep SKC this morning, but high clouds will begin to spread over the area from the west by this evening. Warm front will approach from the west towards 06Z Friday, with only some vicinity showers before 06Z. More widespread precipitation will develop after 06Z. Winds will be light westerly tonight, becoming light south/southeasterly this afternoon. Outlook... Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008>012- 016>019. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-002-005. NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-035- 087. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaRocca NEAR TERM...Duell/LaRocca SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Duell