229 
FXUS64 KMOB 122103
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...Weak shortwave ridging 
will continue over the area through tonight. The ridging will 
maintain an overall subsident pattern which along with the lack of
deep layer moisture will maintain dry conditions. A weak 
shortwave trough passes overhead Wednesday afternoon, bringing a 
slight increase in cloud cover and the off-chance of a passing 
shower. However, the continued lack of significant deep layer 
moisture will keep conditions mainly dry through the period. In 
creased southeast flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents at
areas beaches starting on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range in 
the lower to mid 50s over inland areas, and in the upper 50s to 
mid 60s closer to the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid
and upper 80s inland to low 80s along the coast. /13 

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Surface high
pressure ridging into the area from the east through the short
term period. Surface winds become predominately southeast across
the region and atmospheric moisture continues to increase. Aloft,
nearly zonal flow continues with a few weak embedded shortwave 
impulses. There will likely be just enough moisture return across
southeast Mississippi on Wednesday and especially Thursday 
afternoons to squeeze out a few showers and storms, but only
expect isolated coverage at this time. What few showers and storms
do develop will quickly fade during the early evening hours as a
summerlike diurnal pattern sets up. Nighttime lows will range from
the lower 60s across northern portions of the forecast area to the
mid and upper 60s closer to the coast. A few lower 70s possible on
barrier islands. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the low to
mid 80s coastal areas and over interior southeast Mississippi and
parts of southwest Alabama, but in the upper 80s to near 90 over
interior south central Alabama east of I-65. /12 

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...No big changes in the
extended period from the short term period. Pattern remains pretty
much unchanged with surface high pressure ridging in from the east
and a few occasional weak impulses moving east across the area in
the upper flow aloft. Diurnal convective pattern will continue,
with isolated to low end scattered showers and storms possible
each day, but diminishing overnight. Although atmospheric moisture
will be increased, precipitation will generally be sparse, and 
conditions will continue to be dry with near or above normal 
temperatures. Lows mainly in the 60s, but a few lower 70s along 
the immediate coast. Daytime highs quite warm, with highs in the 
mid to upper 80s coastal and western zones, and in the lower 90s 
over south central Alabama and interior western Florida panhandle.
/12 

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will gradually move eastward into the western
Atlantic by midweek. A moderate east to southeast flow this afternoon
becomes more southeasterly tonight into Wednesday. A moderate to strong
southeasterly flow and building seas is expected through the end of
the week. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday 
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday 
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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