402 FXUS64 KAMA 120646 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 146 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020 .AVIATION... IFR cigs expected to start at all TAF sites for the 06Z TAF period. Once we go past 12-14Z, cigs will begin to lift. Low cigs should remain through most of the daylight hours today, but going past 14-15Z, all cigs should return to VFR levels. Skies will become partly to mostly clear as we go towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will start off out of the east veering to more southeasterly through the day at 10-15 kts. Meccariello && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (through Tuesday night)... Main thing for the short term is the thunderstorm potential through tonight. Otherwise, shower/thunderstorm activity should push east and end by tomorrow. Small chance for some lingering activity across the east Tuesday/Tuesday night, but these chances are very low at this time. We continue to watch a surface low progged to develop over southeastern Colorado today. The low/trough will slowly spread south and eventually east by Tuesday night. There also happens to be a pseudo warm front/baroclinic zone draped across the forecast area extending from the surface low in SE Colorado. As upper level energy gets ejected out over the forecast area, we may have enough upper level support and surface lift to get some thunderstorms to develop. However, lapse rates are pretty weak, and updrafts may have a hard time maintaining given the weak upper level winds. Cannot rule out a small threat for severe weather given MUCAPE around 500-800 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 40 knots. That said, do not think we will have widespread severe weather. We may have enough ingredients for one or two severe storms, but these would be on the lower end for severe for mainly wind and hail. Forecast soundings indicate better chances for showers and some rumbles of thunder versus any severe weather. Temperatures today and tomorrow will vary widely over the forecast area from southwest to northeast with the boundary intersecting our area again tomorrow. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow. Guerrero LONG TERM... An upper level short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the southwest on Wednesday. This trough looks like it will pass over the Panhandles during peak heating. Models are in better agreement now that a dryline will likely hold up just off of the Caprock Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the dryline Wednesday afternoon in our eastern areas. There looks to be plenty of CAPE to get storms to go severe. The shear is not the greatest, but it is sufficient to keep updrafts going. These thunderstorms should move quickly off to the east and southeast of our area. However, the dryline may hold up a little or retreat some in the evening, so will linger pops in the east for this possibility. Thursday should be a dry day behind the short wave trough. The flow aloft will then turn more to the southwest ahead of another short wave trough headed this way from the southwest U.S. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Friday and Saturday in association with this short wave trough. A cold front moves through the Panhandles on Thursday and then it is expected to dissipate to our south and low level moisture is expected to increase in the east ahead of a developing surface low over the southwest Texas Panhandle. If the moisture can get back and if enough instability can be realized, then severe storms will be possible Friday evening. It looks like at this point the north and east will be favored for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the short wave moves across and east of our area. && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray... Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree... Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts... Sherman. OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 29/89