180 FXUS62 KCAE 080232 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1032 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier air has overtaken the region with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A few showers are possible late Friday through Friday night as a cold front moves through but mainly dry weather expected for the next few days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Upper trough axis has shifted off the Southeast Coast with surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico ridging into the forecast area. Somewhat favorable radiational cooling most of the night but expect at least some mid and high level clouds toward dawn ahead of a weak low pressure system approaching the mid Mississippi Valley region. Winds will be light overnight. Lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Day will start off dry on Friday. Winds will increase through the day, becoming gusty by the afternoon. Through the day an upper trough moving eastward towards the region will be pushing a cold front into the southeastern U.S. Moisture should be limited early in the day, but by the afternoon there should be a slight increase in moisture ahead of the front. PWat values only increase to an inch or slightly higher. Instability along the front extremely low, with basically no chance for thunderstorms. There will be a strong low- level jet ahead of and along the front. Timing of best activity appears to be centered close to 00z. Friday night, once the front rapidly move through early in the evening, dry conditions will be pushing back in for the remainder of the night. Dry weather will prevail Saturday through Sunday night with the dry and cold airmass that will be across the region. Temperatures will be well below normal for this time of the year, with high Saturday only in the 60s, while Sunday afternoon may reach the lower to middle 70s. Coldest overnight temperatures in a while look to be on tap for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Winds should become light to calm, with clear skies and very dry air. This will create ideal radiational cooling conditions. Morning low temperatures Sunday morning still on track to bottom out in the mid/upper 30s across the northern counties, with readings around 40 or lower 40s elsewhere. If this trend continues, expect that a frost advisory would be needed at some point for a portion of the cwa for Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early next week the airmass begins to slowly modify, with temperatures showing a slight warming trend each day. Pattern continues to show limited moisture each day, so expecting dry conditions through the period. Below normal temperatures through Tuesday night, then readings begin approaching normal once again by Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through Friday afternoon. High pressure over the region will move offshore overnight. Clear skies will give way to increasing mid and high level clouds around dawn. Light and variable winds overnight becoming south to southwest 10 to 15 knots by late morning as mixing commences. Winds gusts around 25 knots expected during the afternoon ahead of an upper level disturbance and its associated cold front. May see showers arriving toward the end of the TAF period as the cold front gets closer. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will cross the the TAF sites Friday evening with possible brief cig/vsby restrictions in showers. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$