161 
FXUS64 KMEG 070940
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
440 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A weak surface high is currently situated over the Mid-South. An
upper-level trough is analyzed over Montana with a minor 
shortwave situated over SE Colorado - upstream of the the Mid- 
South. Sky coverage varies across the area as parts of the region 
are under clear skies with other locations seeing more mid-level 
clouds. Temperatures are in the low 40s to low 50s. Lows were 
raised slightly where we're seeing more cloud coverage, which is 
mainly over the MO Bootheel and western TN. Winds are weak and 
variable.

We'll stay dry throughout the day as high pressure sits over the
area. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the low
70s and lows dropping into the 50s. High pressure will begin to 
break down as divergent upper-level winds move downstream ahead of
an approaching upper-level trough. The aforementioned trough 
originating from the Montana/Canadian border is similar to a 
clipper system that we would typically see during the Fall/Winter 
seasons. As the system dives southeast into the southern Ohio 
Valley/upper Mid-South, a minor shortwave will eject east along 
the axis of the lower jet branch. The two systems appear to merge 
as the weaker trough is overtaken by the clipper system. Moisture 
will advect into the system as it tracks through the Mid-South 
with the weaker trough moving through northern TX and then MS. The
stronger shortwave will track through the Great Plains and then 
the upper Mid-South which will usher in a cool Canadian airmass. 
Showers and storms will develop across the area overnight and into
Friday. Most locations will only see showers with a slight chance
of thunder as instability is expected to be very limited. 
Temperatures will drop even further below normal with highs mainly
in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. 

We'll stay dry through midweek of next week as weak surface high 
pressure builds over the region. The longwave trough will remain 
over eastern CONUS however, which means temperatures are forecast 
to remain well below normal with highs generally in the 60s to 
lower 70s through Tuesday. Lows will drop into the 40s during the
overnight hours. Temperatures will rise as southerly flow settles
in with highs in the 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Guidance suggests the next chance for precipitation will be on 
Tuesday and into Wednesday as a weak trough moves through MO and 
then KY. 

KRF

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF set

VFR conds will persist through the period. Winds will be light 
and variable overnight...shifting to the southwest by tomorrow 
afternoon. A cold front will approach the area near the end of the
TAF set, with showers and a few thunderstorms possible following
this period. 

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$