788 
FXUS63 KEAX 030506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2020

Message of the day: Chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening 
through Sunday morning. A couple of strong storms possible tonight 
with hail up to a quarter inch mainly south of Highway 50.

Synoptic pattern features a broad ridge moving east of the region 
with a shortwave trough across the northern and central plains and a 
ridge over the intermountain west and another stronger trough across 
the Pacific northwest. All these features will influence our weather 
over the next several days.

Currently a weak quasi-stationary front will slowly drop south 
through the area this evening this will produce a slight temperature 
gradient from north to south with upper 70s north and low 80s to the 
south. Atmosphere will remained capped through the afternoon which 
will keep the area dry through sunset.

This evening a mid level trough moving across northern Missouri will 
be the focus for a few elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm 
while farther south across central Missouri an 850mb cold front will 
be the main focus for elevated showers and thunderstorms tonight 
with MUCAPE near 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Strong storms possible overnight 
due to good mid level lapse rates with marginally severe hail up to 
the size of quarters possible mainly south of Highway 50.

Sunday morning the front will push south and east of the area with 
precipitation ending. A transitory ridge will move across the area 
Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Monday morning as the ridge pushes east a warm front will develop 
across southern Missouri which will bring a chance of showers 
through the day. Cyclogenesis will occur over Oklahoma ahead of a 
stronger shortwave trough. This will strengthen the front across the 
area. This front will be the focus for thunderstorms with CAPE near 
2000 J/kg and bulk shear of 50+ knots and decent mid level lapse 
rates strong to severe storms are possible mainly south of Highway 
50 during the afternoon and early evening hours. Additionally, PWATs 
will be near 1.50" so some heavier precipitation is possible with 
these storms. As the shortwave approaches the cold front will push 
south and east of the area Monday night with precipitation ending. 

Drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as high 
pressure moves across the plains with near normal temperatures.

Another cold front may sweep through the area Thursday and 
Friday with storms and much cooler temperatures possible.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

Showers may develop across portions of the region through the early 
morning hours, with chances ending around daybreak. Due to the
uncertainty in the timing and location of these showers VCSH was
utilized to start. VFR ceilings are expected to persist with 
northeast winds becoming more easterly through the end of the 
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Christensen
Aviation...Barham