769 FXUS63 KIND 021135 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 735 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 High pressure will depart the area today as a cold front approaches from the plains states. This will result in a warm southwest flow of air to Central Indiana...along with chances for showers and Thunderstorms to pass this afternoon and tonight as the cold front approaches and passes. Rain chances will come to an end on Sunday morning as the front sags southward and high pressure from the upper midwest builds across the Ohio valley. This will bring dry weather late Sunday through Monday to start the new work week. Rain chances will return Monday Night through early Wednesday as a warm front and low pressure system is expected to push toward Indiana. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place across Appalachia. A cold front was found from Iowa across Kansas to Oklahoma. This was result in strong SW flow across Indiana. A warm front was found across central Illinois...extending SE across southern Indiana. A few showers/storms were found on radar...riding north of the warm front. Models suggest the weave upper wave passing across the area along with the passing warm front will quickly depart this morning...allowing strong warm air advection to continue on southwest winds between the two previously mentioned systems. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures this afternoon in the middle 70s...with some CAPE available. Upper support should be limited until later in the afternoon and evening as the next short wave arrives. Thus will keep a dry forecast this morning...but trend toward rising chances late this afternoon as conditions become more favorable for convection. Given the warm SW flow expected will trend highs at or above the NBM. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 Wet Weather looks in store tonight as the models suggest the cold front will settle and slowly pass south of Indiana. Aloft favorable upper support will be in play as disturbance is expected to pass within a zonal flow aloft. Mid levels show good saturation across the as the frontal boundary looks to take a E-W orientation across central Indiana. Forecast soundings show deep saturation overnight with pwats near 1.59 inches. Time heights show deep Saturation and strong forcing...some of which lingers through Sunday morning. Given the slow expected progression of the sagging cold front...pops will be needed to continue into Sunday morning. By Late Sunday afternoon and evening...strong subsidence begins within the column as moisture dries up. Aloft...ridging is building across the plains and east toward Indiana as an upper trough departs. Within the lower levels the cold front finally sags to Virginia and Tennessee...as high pressure builds across Indiana and Illinois. Thus will trend toward a clearing sky on Sunday night. Dry weather is then expected to persist on Monday as high pressure moves through the area. forecast soundings continue to indicate dry lower levels however some moisture arrives aloft through the day. This is probably due to the suggested short wave approaching within the flow aloft. Thus will trend toward some increasing cloudiness as monday progresses. On Monday Night the GFS and NAM suggest another short wave approaching Indiana within the flow aloft. Another area of low pressure over the southern plains states is expected to surge northeast toward Indiana along with a warm front. Forecast soundings begins to show an overrunning type of saturation. Thus will once again ramp up pops on MOnday night as the warm front approaches. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 An upper longwave trough looks to set up for most of the long term period prompting unsettled weather and below normal temperatures. A surface low tracking over the Great Lakes will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday followed by an additional, but brief, wave with chance PoPs Wednesday. Models then show a Canadian low bringing yet another chance for storms at the end of the week. Accepted guidance as it looked reasonable given the unsettled pattern next week. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 02/12Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat May 2 2020 VFR conditions and mostly sunny skies are in store for today, becoming MVFR for most sites due to rain and lowered ceilings associated with a cold front moving through the area tonight. Winds will start out of the south at 5 to 10 kts shifting to westerly by this evening. Also expecting gusts this afternoon to get to around 20 kts. Winds will continue shifting around from the north behind the cold front tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....KH AVIATION...KH