535 
FXUS63 KFGF 262356
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Returns on radar would indicate numerous light rain showers, 
however most basins are high and there are only a few pockets 
where rain is reaching the surface in our area. There is still 
instability show on RAP analysis (MUCAPE around 250 J/KG), but so 
far most lighting activity has remains well north of the 
International Border. CAMs (and forecast) timing matches well with
current radar returns, however it may be overdone regarding 
actual threat of measurable precip early this evening. As this 
activity spreads east tonight there is still an indication that it
will pick up in intensity with measurable chances increasing in 
north central MN. For now I made adjustments to near term timing,
but held off on more substantial chance beyond that. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Little impacts wrt to the weather in the short term. Frontal 
passage this evening will bring some scattered shower activity to 
the area with possibly some embedded thunder with MUCAPE up to 500
J/kg. Model solns continue to depict coverage increasing as the
precip moves into the MN portions of the area this evening and
into the overnight. Amounts will be on the light side with up to a
tenth of an inch or so with the heaviest showers. Also expecting
some evaporation with dry near surface layer causing some virga. 

Monday will see west winds develop behind the front and sunny 
skies allowing for temps to reach into the mid and upper 60s. A 
few locations may see their first 70 degree day of the warm 
season as the quick moving surface ridge axis pushes across the
northern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

This forecast period will be active with multiple upper waves moving 
through or near the Northern Plains. The first wave will lead to 
rain chances Monday night into Tuesday night. The main source of 
lift will be a surface low passing to the south across northern Iowa 
or southern Minnesota. For this reason the highest rain totals are 
expected over southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. 
Some instability may also be present in this same area to allow for 
thunderstorms. Instability will not be high enough and there is not 
likely to be enough shear for strong to severe storms in this area 
with CAPE under 500 J/kg and bulk shear under 20 knots. The 
confidence in rain is high, but the exact amounts are still somewhat 
uncertain due to spread in both ensemble and deterministic guidance.

A break in the activity for Wednesday and Thursday with only a few 
rain showers possible. Friday looks likely to be the warmest day of 
the year so far with high temperatures in low to mid 70s for most, 
some upper 60s still more likely in north central Minnesota. With 
this heat comes more potential for CAPE, but a relatively dry 
environment looks to keep LCLs high and CAPE values low. There is a 
fair to moderate amount of shear around, but with out much 
instability strong storms are not as likely to form. If there is a 
chance something could form it would be along the front moving 
across the Northern Plains late Friday. A period of ridging looks 
most likely for the next weekend leader to quieter weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN, with main aviation impact from
showers moving west to east across the region. We also can't rule
out an isolated thunderstorm, but so far coverage looks to be very
low/threat minimal. Southerly winds 10-15kt should continue to
decrease and eventually shift to the west late tonight/Monday
morning remaining near or below 10kt for most locations. A few 
daytime gusts to 20kt can't be ruled out Monday (mainly north of 
Highway 2).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

River point flood warnings continue across portions of
the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

&&
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...DJR